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[LawAnype]

п»ї2024 Presidential Election Odds.
Who will be the next US President?
The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.
The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.
Here’s a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at two UK books:
Presidential election odds 2024.
Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It’s reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.
The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.
That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:
Donald Trump, 2017-2021 George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993 Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981 Gerald Ford, 1974-77 Herbert Hoover, 1929-33 William Howard Taft, 1909-13 Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93 Martin Van Buren, 1837-41 John Quincy Adams, 1825-29 John Adams, 1797-1801.
If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.
Harris’ nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.
Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?
The short answer is yes.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Election betting explained.
Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.
What to monitor: polling data.
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
Real Clear Politics : Consolidates and links to the most respected polls. FiveThirtyEight Polls : Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders.
Democrats.
In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Republicans.
While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, current Vice President Mike Pence is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Trump’s daughter Ivanka.
2024 Presidential betting tips.
In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.
That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.
Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.
Can you bet in the US?
So far, no states have allowed sportsbooks within their borders to take action on the results of any US elections. If that changes to any degree, TheLines will keep you updated on the progress of that movement.


2024 US Presidential Election Odds.
NAME ODDS CHANGE Kamala Harris 22.2% 2.20% Joe Biden 16.7% — Donald Trump 9.1% — Nikki Haley 9.1% — Pete Buttigieg 6.7% — Mike Pence 5.9% — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3% — Donald Trump Jnr 5.3% — Eric Trump 5.3% — Ivanka Trump 5.3% —
Implied probabilities are calculated using odds offered by Betfair. Last Updated: 2021-02-06 18:00:30 PDT.
For news on what affected the presidential odds during the 2020 election, please see our prior news coverage:
2020 US presidential election odds coverage archive:
2024 US Presidential Election Odds.
The 2020 US Presidential election was considered to be the most important election of modern times. Even before the close of calendar year 2020, there is already talk of the 2024 Presidential election. Trump is already fundraising and declaring his intention to run, which sets up a potentially wild ride for the next 4 years.
When it comes to the odds to win the presidency, track the odds here. With up to the minute presidential bet odds bookmark this page and check back often.
How Odds On Elections Are Calculated.
Presidential betting odds are calculated using an aggregated weighted index including numbers from:
Betfair Exchange Betway PredictIt.
As of early 2021, only Betfair is offering odds because they are the only bookmaker taking bets on the next election. We assume Betway and PredictIt will be taking bets at some point and those odds will be added in.
Once all three bookmakers publish odds, you can use the chart above to view odds from all of them at once, weighted, or check an individual market. A betting exchange (Betfair Exchange, PredicIt) lets people bet against each other. The bookmaker (Betway) takes less risk but will take a small percentage of winnings.
Election betting is often referred to as “futures” because it is a wager on a specific, future event. Most election wagers are moneyline bets or straight bets. It’s a straight forward wager normally with no spread involved.
For a sporting event, you are bidding on which team will win. For betting on the presidential election, you are bidding on which candidate will win.
How Are The Presidential Election Betting Percentages Calculated.
When comparing the presidential odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win.
When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning.
How Accurate Are The Betting Odds For The Election.
As with any wager, it’s important to look at the sources of information that lead people to choose one bet or another. In this case, news coverage and election polling are common sources of information.
Prior to the 2016 election, people commonly trusted reliable polling numbers. That’s changed in the 2018 and 2020 elections. In particular, polls leading up to the 2020 elections predicted the Democrats would gain in the US House of Representatives and would take bake the US Senate. Neither of these occurred.
So, how accurate are the betting odds? They change daily (and even hourly) based on peoples’ perceptions of who will win the election. If Trump continues to campaign for the 2024 election, the odds could continue to be as volatile as they were in 2020 because of his unpredictability.
2024 Election Key Dates.
Many of the key election dates are set months or years in advance. As of early 2021, only two dates have been set for the 2024 election cycle. Primary dates and convention dates have yet to be set.
Here are some of the key dates that could affect polling numbers for the 2020 US Presidential election:
November 5, 2024 : US Presidential Election January 20, 2025 : Swearing-in of the next President.
Can You Bet On The 2024 Election In The US?
Legal US online sports betting websites do not accept betting on presidential elections or any other political betting. We don’t see this situation changing before the 2024 election.
Although some events during 2020 led election betters to believe this could be changing.
West Virginia Election Betting.
The West Virginia Lottery briefly approved three sports betting companies to open election betting. With sports betting down and casinos closed due to the Coronavirus, the sports betting companies sought different avenues for revenue. Governor Jim Justice quickly rescinded this approval. Election betting is illegal in West Virginia.
Looking for more sports betting odds? Check out our Super Bowl Odds, World Series, Stanley Cup, and NBA Finals.
FAQs – U.S. Presidential Election Betting And Odds.
The most common prop bet is simply who will win the election. It is also possible to wager on other results of the 2024 election. The political betting market includes who will win the popular vote, who will win the Electoral College, or who will control the US House of Representatives.
No, due to restrictive regulations against political and election betting, sportsbooks won’t take an election bet. When Nevada state set the regulations for sports betting in 1985, they restricted betting to professional sports. Over the years, Nevada loosened the rules to include college sports and the Olympics. Despite that, the state still does not allow for election betting. There is still talk of Vegas presidential odds, though. Some of the top oddsmakers in Vegas are offering their predictions. They are posting lines, just like they would for other non-sports events, like the Oscars. Although they are prohibited from taking bets, it’s more of a marketing gimmick, for entertainment purposes only.
Peoples’ perceptions of the likelihood of an outcome affect the percentages daily, and even hourly. News and current events affect peoples’ perceptions, particularly in a volatile and ever-changing news cycle.
In the past, endorsements were a key indicator of the eventual nominee and election winner. The 2016 election, though, ended that trend. That said, endorsements can indicate how an elected official will turn out the vote in their jurisdiction.
Polling data can provide a good indicator of the likely outcome of an election. These are, of course, polls and not results and should be taken with a grain of salt. The 2016 election resulted in some of the most traditionally reliable polls being totally off base. The same occurred during the 2020 election, particularly in the US Senate. Some of the most well-respected polls for US election monitoring are RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.
The odds markets continue to take into consideration unlikely candidates. In the months leading up to the 2020 election, the odds focused only on Trump and Biden but earlier odds included Senator Bernie Sanders, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and even Vice President Mike Pence – all long-shot candidates. For the 2024 election, because it is still early, there are multiple potential candidates and nominees, including four with the last name Trump.




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