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п»їNFL Week 15 picks: Chiefs beat Saints; Steelers bounce back against Bengals.
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread would have been 4-12 (.250); season 107-96-56 (.527).
Times are Pacific.
Bills (10-3) at Broncos (5-8)
Saturday, 1:30 p.m.
Line: Bills by 6. O/U: 511/2.
The Broncos are young and full of potential, but too up and down. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level for the Bills, whose defense struggles with consistency but can play really well at times.
Prediction : Bills 35, Broncos 24.
Panthers (4-9) at Packers (10-3)
Saturday, 5:15 p.m.
Line: Packers by 81/2. O/U: 511/2.
This could be a bit of a shootout, especially if D.J. Moore is back for the Panthers. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable, but the Packers have too many weapons and Aaron Rodgers is too good.
Prediction : Packers 34, Panthers 27.
Jaguars (1-12) at Ravens (8-5)
TV: None. DirecTV: 705.
Line: Ravens by 13. O/U: 471/2.
The Ravens looked great in a thriller at Cleveland on Monday, finally playing with the explosiveness that defined them last season. The Jaguars can hang tough now and again but can’t stop the run.
Prediction : Ravens 34, Jaguars 17.
Patriots (6-7) at Dolphins (8-5)
TV: None. DirecTV: 706.
Line: Dolphins by 11/2. O/U: 411/2.
Bill Belichick routinely schools rookies, even the astoundingly impressive QB Justin Herbert. But Tua Tagovailoa is backed by a smothering Miami defense, and Patriots will struggle to move ball.
Prediction : Dolphins 24, Patriots 18.
49ers (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9)
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.
Line: 49ers by 3. O/U: 45.
The season is slipping away for banged-up 49ers, but they should be able to run over Cowboys. If Raheem Mostert can’t go, Jeff Wilson will have a big day. Kyle Shanahan will carve up a bad Dallas D.
Prediction : 49ers 28, Cowboys 21.
Texans (4-9) at Colts (9-4)
TV: None. DirecTV: 708.
Line: Colts by 71/2. O/U: 51.
Even if they get Brandin Cooks back, the Texans don’t have much left. You can’t run on the Colts, and they still have a swarming pass defense. Indianapolis rushes four and gets to the quarterback.
Prediction : Colts 33, Texans 24.
Lions (5-8) at Titans (9-4)
TV: None. DirecTV: 709.
Line: Titans by 11. O/U: 511/2.
The Lions can’t stop the run, and Tennessee is going to want to run it all game. It doesn’t look as if Matthew Stafford is going to play. If he did, maybe the game wouldn’t be so lopsided.
Prediction : Titans 35, Lions 21.
Buccaneers (8-5) at Falcons (4-9)
TV: None. DirecTV: 710.
Line: Buccaneers by 6. O/U: 491/2.
Where did Matt Ryan go? The Falcons don’t run, and even though their defense is better under Raheem Morris, it’s not good enough. Tampa Bay has kicking issues, but Buccaneers are just better.
Prediction : Buccaneers 34, Falcons 27.
Bears (6-7) at Vikings (6-7)
TV: None. DirecTV: 711.
Line: Vikings by 3. O/U: 461/2.
The Bears have scored 30 and 36 in consecutive weeks, so that makes this interesting. But you never know which Mitch Trubisky you’re going to get. That said, the Vikings are better all the way around.
Prediction : Vikings 28, Bears 24.
Seahawks (9-4) at Washington (6-7)
TV: None. DirecTV: 712.
Line: Seahawks by 51/2. O/U: 441/2.
Could be game of the week, especially if Alex Smith can play. The Seahawks have been better on defense since they started blitzing with Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams. A lower-scoring slugfest.
Prediction : Seahawks 21, Washington 17.
Eagles (4-8-1) at Cardinals (7-6)
TV: None. DirecTV: 713.
Line: Cardinals by 6. O/U: 491/2.
Now that teams have gotten a glimpse of Jalen Hurts, they know what they’re facing. Hurts will need to throw better to outduel Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Interesting game, but go with home team.
Prediction : Cardinals 28, Eagles 20.
Jets (0-13) at Rams (9-4)
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.
Line: Rams by 171/2. O/U: 431/2.
With a spot in the playoffs up for grabs with a win, Sean McVay makes sure his players don’t overlook the league’s only winless team. Rams’ defense is smothering and Jared Goff has a big day.
Prediction : Rams 38, Jets 9.
Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3)
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.
Line: Chiefs by 3. O/U: 511/2.
The Saints have won a lot but haven’t scored like crazy with Taysom Hill at quarterback. If Drew Brees returns, he won’t be the same . at least not yet. Hard to match Chiefs in a scoring contest.
Prediction : Chiefs 34, Saints 28.
Browns (9-4) at Giants (5-8)
Line: Browns by 6. O/U: 441/2.
The Giants have looked decent at times, but Daniel Jones doesn’t look healthy and will be vulnerable to the Browns pass rush. Cleveland is coming off a heartbreaker, and should bounce back.
Prediction : Browns 27, Giants 23.
Steelers (11-2) at Bengals (2-10-1)
Line: Steelers by 13. O/U: 40.
Ben Roethlisberger virtually always plays well in home state of Ohio, and has the weapons to carve up the struggling Bengals. Pittsburgh regains footing and heads into postseason on upward trend.
Prediction : Steelers 35, Bengals 18.
Go beyond the scoreboard.
Get the latest on L.A.'s teams in the daily Sports Report newsletter.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.
Honored by the Pro Football Hall of Fame in recognition of his “long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football,” Sam Farmer has covered the NFL for 25 seasons. A graduate of Occidental College, he’s a two-time winner of California Sportswriter of the Year and first place for beat writing by Associated Press Sports Editors.
L.A. Times’ Sam Farmer predicts winners in 2021 NFL wild-card games.
AFC: Indianapolis at Buffalo.
Saturday, 10:05 a.m. PT, Ch. 2 Line: Bills by 6.5.
Colts keys: Even if they don’t stockpile sacks, they can’t let quarterback Josh Allen beat them with his legs. … Try to control the clock and keep Buffalo’s offense off the field by running Jonathan Taylor. … Philip Rivers is the quarterback, but incorporate a package that takes advantage of Jacoby Brissett’s running ability.
Bills keys: Keep doing what they’ve done. Since their week off, the Bills have won by 10, 10, 11, 29, 29 and 30 points. … Force Rivers to beat you with his arm, instead of Indianapolis mounting long, clock-consuming drives. … If the Colts successfully contain Stefon Diggs, get the ball to John Brown and Cole Beasley (if he’s available). … Avoid turnovers and Buffalo wins.
Farmer’s pick: Whereas Indianapolis was up and down at the end of the season, Buffalo was a “Hail Murray” away from winning its last 10 games. The Bills are highly motivated, and their defense is playing better. Allen is the best player on the field. BILLS 27, COLTS 23.
NFC: Rams at Seattle.
Saturday, 1:40 p.m. PT, Ch. 11 Line: Seahawks by 5.
Rams keys: They have to be able to run the ball. Pete Carroll’s defense is going to sell out to stop the run, paving the way to cut loose the pass rushers as the game progresses. … Unless Jared Goff is 100% unhindered by his thumb, they have to be leery about playing him over John Wolford, because of Wolford’s ability to make plays with his legs. … Win the game with defense.
NFL Week 17 picks: Washington makes playoffs; Rams top Cardinals.
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread would have been 7-8-1 (.467); season 122-112-6 (.521). Times are Pacific.
Miami Dolphins (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)
TV: None. DirecTV: 705.
Line: Bills by 3. O/U: 43.
These Bills are entertaining, and Josh Allen consistently plays at an MVP level. The Dolphins are no pushovers, particularly on defense. Tua Tagovailoa is early on the growth curve.
Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 20.
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1)
TV: None. DirecTV: 706.
Line: Ravens by 13. O/U: 441/2.
Baltimore is heavily favored, and the Ravens have a chance to make the playoffs so they have incentivize. Still, Cincinnati has won two in a row and can put up some semblance of a fight.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 21.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) at Cleveland Browns (10-5)
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.
Line: Browns by 10. O/U: 421/2.
The Browns are dealing with a COVID outbreak, so tough to know who might play. But Mason Rudolph is starting for Pittsburgh, and it was Ben Roethlisberger who turned the Steelers around last week.
Prediction: Browns 28, Steelers 21.
New York Jets (2-13) at New England Patriots (6-9)
TV: None. DirecTV: 708.
Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 391/2.
The Jets have won two in a row, and their offense has gotten healthier and is clicking a bit. The Patriots are a shell of teams we’ve known, and it’s amazing they have more than a couple of wins.
Prediction: Jets 23, Patriots 20.
Minnesota Vikings (6-9) at Detroit Lions (5-10)
TV: None. DirecTV: 709.
Line: Vikings by 7. O/U: 54.
Even without Dalvin Cook and Kyle Rudolph, the Vikings are significantly better than the Lions. Detroit plays too much man defense, and Kirk Cousins is accurate enough to take advantage.
Prediction: Vikings 30, Lions 21.
Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at New York Giants (5-10)
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.
Line: Cowboys by 1. O/U: 441/2.
Andy Dalton is playing as well as Dak Prescott played earlier this season. The Cowboys’ defense is suspect, but the Giants are too banged up to take advantage. Dallas has too many weapons.
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 24.
Atlanta Falcons (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)
TV: None. DirecTV: 711.
Line: Buccaneers by 7. O/U: 501/2.
The Buccaneers will have left tackle Donovan Smith against Atlanta this time, and that will give Tom Brady time to find his receivers. Brady has a big first half, and the Buccaneers cruise to playoffs.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24.
New Orleans Saints (11-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-10)
TV: None. DirecTV: 712.
Line: Saints by 61/2. O/U: 471/2.
The Saints’ defense made big strides this season but took a step backward in surrendering 33 points to Minnesota last week. Matt Rhule will have the Panthers playing hard, but the Saints have too much.
Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 24.
Green Bay Packers (12-3) at Chicago Bears (8-7)
TV: None. DirecTV: 713.
Line: Packers by 51/2. O/U: 51.
The Bears have won three in a row, scoring a lot of points and running effectively. But Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are playing at a different level for Green Bay, which is vying for the NFC’s bye.
Prediction: Packers 34, Bears 24.
Los Angeles Chargers (6-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.
Line: Chargers by 31/2. O/U: 44.
The Chiefs are resting Patrick Mahomes, so Chad Henne will be leading a cast of understudies. The Chargers tend to play pretty well there, and win with the combo of Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler.
Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 23.
Seattle Seahawks (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
TV: None. DirecTV: 715.
Line: Seahawks by 61/2. O/U: 46.
Seattle’s defensive transformation has been remarkable. The way they blitz Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams creates problems for others. 49ers are talented but are the walking wounded.
Prediction: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21.
Las Vegas Raiders (7-8) at Denver Broncos (5-10)
TV: None. DirecTV: 716.
Line: Raiders by 21/2. O/U: 51.
Derek Carr has quietly put together a great season with a hodgepodge supporting cast, and a young defense that really has struggled. Denver’s offense is inexperienced but filled with potential.
Prediction: Raiders 24, Broncos 18.
Tennessee Titans (10-5) at Houston Texans (4-11)
TV: None. DirecTV: 717.
Line: Titans by 71/2. O/U: 561/2.
After a slow start, Deshaun Watson has been terrific. Not so for the rest of the Texans. That said, Houston should be able to make this interesting. Still, no stopping Derrick Henry.
Prediction: Titans 34, Texans 31.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)
TV: None. DirecTV: 718.
Line: Colts by 14. O/U: 491/2.
The Colts are desperate, and if they don’t get into the playoffs it’s a travesty. If that’s the case, they can point to their Week 1 loss at Jacksonville. Philip Rivers comes through, as does the defense.
Prediction: Colts 34, Jaguars 13.
Arizona Cardinals (8-7) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 719.
Line: Cardinals by 3. O/U: 401/2.
Big test for Sean McVay, with Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp out, the running game ravaged, and a QB who has never thrown an NFL pass. McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. The defense comes through.
Prediction: Rams 20, Cardinals 17.
Washington (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1)
Line: Washington by 2. O/U: 431/2.
Taylor Heinicke might not get Washington fans too excited, but that defense can be smothering. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts is fun to watch, but the Eagles break down on defense. Should be close.
Prediction: Washington 17, Eagles 14.
Go beyond the scoreboard.
Get the latest on L.A.'s teams in the daily Sports Report newsletter.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.
Honored by the Pro Football Hall of Fame in recognition of his “long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football,” Sam Farmer has covered the NFL for 25 seasons. A graduate of Occidental College, he’s a two-time winner of California Sportswriter of the Year and first place for beat writing by Associated Press Sports Editors.
L.A. Times’ Sam Farmer predicts winners in NFL divisional round of playoffs.
The L.A. Times’ Sam Farmer examines the divisional-round matchups this weekend in the NFL playoffs. Last week he was 5-1 on predictions, only misfiring on Cleveland’s upset of Pittsburgh. Using point spreads with scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread would have been 5-0-1.
NFC: Rams at Green Bay.
Saturday, 1:35 p.m. PT, Ch. 11 Line: Packers by 6ВЅ
Rams keys: The teams that give Aaron Rodgers problems are the ones that can bring enough pressure with four up front. Don’t give him opportunities down the field. . Jalen Ramsey can blanket Davante Adams, but Aaron Jones cannot have a big day. . The health of Aaron Donald is paramount. . Rookie running back Cam Akers is huge in this, and teams can run on the Packers. . With Jared Goff at quarterback, he needs to get the ball out of his wounded hand quickly. No sacks.
Packers keys: Take advantage of the Rams’ issues at quarterback by getting to Goff. . Establish a running game with Jones to set up the play-action game. . The Rams will look to do what San Francisco has done, rattling Rodgers with a heavy pass rush. . Try to win the time-of-possession battle by controlling the ball somewhere in the range of 33-36 minutes.
The weather could play a factor for the Rams when they travel to Lambeau Field this Saturday for their NFC divisional-round game against the Green Bay Packers.
Farmer’s pick: As well as the Rams’ defense is playing, picking against Aaron Rodgers at home is seldom a good idea. With their quarterback issues, it’s going to be tough for the Rams to take full advantage of a vulnerable Green Bay defense. Even with Jalen Ramsey on him, Davante Adams will have an impact. PACKERS 27, RAMS 21.
AFC: Baltimore at Buffalo.
Saturday, 5:15 p.m., Ch. 4 Line: Bills by 2ВЅ
Bills keys: The Bills have to make Lamar Jackson beat them from the pocket. They cannot let him run. Sacking him isn’t the primary objective; making him win from the pocket is. . Taking away the tight end is paramount, so the quarterback has to throw outside. That’s not easy because of all the misdirection Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman runs. . On offense, be balanced and stay in third-and-manageable so the Ravens can’t tee up all sorts of blitzes.
Ravens keys: Remember their history: Baltimore is one of the best road teams in playoff history. . Keep manufacturing the running game, then build the play-action game off that. . Maybe hit a couple one-on-one shots down the field when the Bills gang up to keep Jackson from running. . Get some short fields with a defensive stop or turnover. . Rev up that running game, and don’t put the outcome on Jackson’s arm. He can make throws, but his legs have to be a factor.
Farmer’s pick: Teams can run it on Buffalo, and that plays right into Baltimore’s hands. But Josh Allen has been way too hot lately, and he will give the Ravens defense problems with his legs. Beware, because Baltimore is a great road team in the playoffs, but the Bills keep the dream alive in this one. BILLS 33, RAVENS 27.
AFC: Cleveland at Kansas City.
Sunday, 12:05 p.m., Ch. 2 Line: Chiefs by 10.
Browns keys: Keep up their play-action game to their tight ends, which has been going great so far. They won’t have the same matchup advantages against Kansas City that they had against Pittsburgh. . Stay ahead of the sticks. Third-and-long is not a Baker Mayfield down, not the way it’s a Patrick Mahomes down. . The running game is key. If the Browns can milk the clock, play Cover-2 defense and keep everything in front of them, they can hang around with a chance in the fourth quarter.
Chiefs keys: If the Chiefs don’t turn it over, they win. . Keep doing what they’re doing with Mahomes. . Cleveland would love Kansas City to run closer to 50 plays, not 70. . Don’t let the Browns draw them into a grind-it-out running game, even though rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a dangerous weapon. . Get some explosive plays. . Travis Kelce is a huge weapon, especially in this one, and Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman have to scare the Browns, too.
NFL championship Sunday: Schedule, predictions, odds and picks.
The Times’ Sam Farmer examines the NFL conference championship games. Last week, Farmer went 4-0 in his divisional-round predictions (9-1 for playoffs). Using point spreads with the scores he predicted, the record against the spread would have been 3-1 (8-1-1 for playoffs):
NFC Championship.
No. 5 Tampa Bay at No. 1 Green Bay Sunday, noon PST, Channel 11. Line: Packers by 3ВЅ.
First meeting: In Week 6 at Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers fell behind 10-0 before outscoring the Packers, 38-0, in the final three quarters for a 38-10 victory. Aaron Rodgers was held to a season-low 160 yards passing and had two interceptions.
Buccaneers keys: They have to take away Green Bay’s running game. If Rodgers is allowed to hand it off more than 50% of the time, that will make it too easy for him. … Avoid the defensive holding penalties that hurt them against New Orleans. … Establish a running game that lets Tom Brady stay on schedule. … Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can make catches against tight coverage, but they tend not to separate. Tight end Cameron Brate is the most-open guy much of the time.
Trent Dilfer, Steve Young, Rich Gannon and Matt Hasselbeck break down what makes Tom Brady arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
Packers keys: Get the running game going to set up the play-action and keep Rodgers in rhythm. … Try to rev up Aaron Jones, who was held to 15 yards in 10 carries the first time. … Neutralize the Tampa Bay pass rush by putting Rodgers in those second-and-sixes and third-and-fours. … On defense, hold the Buccaneers to less than 40% on third down. … With so much focus on Davante Adams, create some explosive plays with their other receiving weapons.
Farmer’s pick: From the Colts to the Cardinals to the Buccaneers, Bruce Arians has had a lot of success against the Packers in recent years. Green Bay is playing with incredible efficiency on offense, with that hinging on establishing the run. That’s harder to do with Vita Vea returning for Tampa Bay. Cold weather doesn’t scare Tom Brady. BUCCANEERS 28, PACKERS 24.
AFC Championship.
No. 2 Buffalo at No. 1 Kansas City Sunday, 3:30 p.m., Channel 2. Line: Chiefs by 3.
First meeting: In Week 6 in Buffalo, the Chiefs won, 26-17, with Patrick Mahomes throwing two touchdown passes to Travis Kelce. Kansas City won the time-of-possession battle by 15 minutes.
Bills keys: Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perfectly comfortable letting Josh Allen throw on just about every down, and foul weather doesn’t scare them. … Get slot receiver Cole Beasley more involved. … This will be a game of “Our guy’s more durable than your guy,” especially with Mahomes coming off a concussion. … Defensively, take advantage of the fact the Chiefs aren’t going to want Mahomes to run. … Keep everything in front of you, and don’t let Tyreek Hill beat you. If it’s somebody else, so be it.
Chiefs keys: If the Chiefs play their game, generating offense won’t be a problem. Falling behind doesn’t rattle them, either, judging by the way Mahomes led those comebacks in the 2019 postseason. … The key will be slowing Allen, who’s dangerous with his arm and legs. Try to keep the Buffalo quarterback in the pocket, make him throw on schedule, and don’t let him escape to his right. If he rolls out, try to make it away from his throwing arm.
Raheem Morris is named defensive coordinator by the Rams, replacing Brandon Staley, who left after one season to become coach of the Chargers.
Farmer’s pick: There could be a combined 100 passing attempts in this game. The Chiefs have a ton of offensive weapons and can score in bunches, but the injuries to Mahomes are a real concern. Not just the concussion but the turf toe. Allen is playing like a young John Elway, and having Stefon Diggs and John Brown allows the Bills to stretch the field vertically. Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been fantastic. BILLS 33, CHIEFS 31.
Go beyond the scoreboard.
Get the latest on L.A.'s teams in the daily Sports Report newsletter.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.
Honored by the Pro Football Hall of Fame in recognition of his “long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football,” Sam Farmer has covered the NFL for 25 seasons. A graduate of Occidental College, he’s a two-time winner of California Sportswriter of the Year and first place for beat writing by Associated Press Sports Editors.
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