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Pete Prisco's Week 17 NFL picks: Cowboys make playoffs with Eagles win, Packers earn top seed, Jets upset Pats.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 17, including the Eagles upsetting Washington to send the Cowboys to the playoffs.
Any week where you are over .500 against the spread picking NFL games has to be considered a good week. Right?
It's two straight above .500 for me after a lull in early December, as I went 8-7-1 last week, making my season record 114-118-7. I would love to finish above .500 for the regular season, so this is a big week -- even if it's a tough one.
My best bets on the Pick Six Podcast were 2-3-1 last week, with the tie coming on the Over in the Tampa Bay-Detroit game because of two missed extra points and a missed chip-shot field goal late. That takes my season record with the best bets to 55-39-1.
Let's try and keep the winning ways going with my overall picks, but like I mentioned above, I think this is a challenging week with some teams resting players and others playing to win. Motivation can be key in a lot of these games, so deeper analysis has to be in play.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts need this to have a chance to make the playoffs, but also need help. They blew a lead to the Steelers last week, but they won't blow one here. They lost to Jacksonville in the opener, but this won't be close. The Jaguars are bad. Colts big.
Pick: Colts 31, Jaguars 10.
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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans.
If the Titans win, they win the AFC South. Pretty simple. But this is a second straight road game, and the defense is awful. But the good news is the Texans defense is just as bad. Look for Derrick Henry to run his team into the postseason but Deshaun Watson will keep the Texans around.
Pick: Titans 31, Texans 27.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs are playing to lock up the fifth seed -- if that's what they want. Atlanta has played tough lately and almost beat the Bucs two weeks ago. But Tampa Bay will be focused here, while the Falcons probably are thinking about time off. Atlanta is playing a second straight road game as well. Bucs big.
Pick: Buccaneers 33, Falcons 24.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants.
The winner of this game will need Washington to lose later in the day to win the NFC East. The Giants have been struggling in a big way the past few weeks, while Dallas has come alive on offense with Andy Dalton. I think it stays that way as Dalton and the Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 20.
New York Jets at New England Patriots.
This game means nothing in the playoff chase. The Patriots have been awful the past two weeks, while the Jets have won two in a row. The Jets will play hard and tough here to keep the streak alive. New England has the worse offense right now. Jets take it.
Pick: Jets 23, Patriots 21.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are locked into the top seed in the AFC, so they will likely rest players. The Chargers have come to life the past three games and would love to end on a winning streak. I think they do. Justin Herbert wins another one.
Pick: Chargers 33, Chiefs 23.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions.
This is a game featuring two teams going home, but the Lions are a total mess. They were lifeless against the Bucs, and will likely play here without Matt Stafford. The Vikings were blown out by the Saints last week, but they will bounce back in this one. Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 31, Lions 21.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns.
Mason Rudolph will be starting for the Steelers at quarterback. Do they want the Browns in the playoffs? The Steelers still have a chance for the second seed, but they are passing on playing Ben Roethlisberger. That's a big break for Cleveland. With that as a backdrop, the Browns will win and make the playoffs.
Pick: Browns 24, Steelers 16.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals.
The Ravens are in the playoffs with a victory, and they have been playing well the past few weeks. The run game continues to power this team, which will be the case here. The Bengals won't slow down Lamar Jackson. Ravens take it.
Pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 17.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears.
The Bears might need this to get into the playoffs (they can still get in if the Cardinals lose), while the Packers need it to lock up the top seed. Green Bay is rolling right now, which will make it a major challenge for the Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers will lock up the MVP with a big-time performance in this one.
Pick: Packers 30, Bears 21.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills.
If the Bills win this, they will lock up the second seed. Josh Allen is playing great right now, but the Miami defense has been outstanding. This will be a real challenge for the Buffalo offense. The problem is Miami's offense is struggling with Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo will take advantage of that and win this one to get the second seed.
Pick: Bills 26, Dolphins 17.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers.
The Seahawks are still in the running for the top seed, so they are playing to win. The 49ers looked good last week in beating Arizona, and you know they would love to beat their rival. It will be close, but Seattle will find a way to win it late. It won't be easy.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 23.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers.
The Saints looked great in beating the Vikings last week, but the Panthers also impressed in beating Washington on the road. This Carolina team is feisty, even if it isn't playing for anything. The Saints have an outside shot at the top seed, but they will fight and scrap to get that chance with a close win here.
Pick: Saints 25, Panthers 21.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams.
The winner is in the playoffs, while the Rams still could be with a loss. The quarterback situations are interesting. Kyler Murray is banged up, but it looks like he will go. Jared Goff is out, which means John Wolford will make his first NFL start. That will put way too much pressure on the Rams defense. Cardinals win it to get into the postseason.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 20.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos.
This is one of the games that means nothing this week. So it should be played loose and free. Look for both offenses to play well with a lot of points as the Broncos win it at home.
Pick: Broncos 31, Raiders 28.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles.
If Washington wins this game, it is the division champ. It won't be easy. Alex Smith is banged up and could be a game-time decision. That means it could be Taylor Heinicke. The Eagles have played much better on offense as of late with Jalen Hurts. The Eagles would love to spoil Washington's playoff party, and I think they will.
Pick: Eagles 24, Washington 21.
Pete Prisco's Super Bowl 2021 pick: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady make big plays in Chiefs-Bucs shootout.
Prisco says the Chiefs and Bucs will stay true to their aggressive natures in high-scoring game; here's who'll prevail.
TAMPA -- The postseason has not been good to me as it relates to my picks. In fact, I've downright stunk it up.
Maybe a change of cities will be a good thing for me. We are here in Tampa for Super Bowl LV, which I hope can change my postseason fortunes.
I went 0-2 against the spread with my championship game picks, taking the Buffalo Bills to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers to cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That dropped my season record to 126-132-9, which means the postseason has taken me far under .500.
The losing changes here.
I love this Super Bowl. It has everything to make it a great one. Two great quarterbacks, stars all over the field, and two coaches who aren't afraid to turn it loose. It should be a fun, entertaining evening of football. So let's get to the pick.
Super Bowl LV is almost here, and you can watch it for free on the CBS Sports App.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This is Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, the legend against a Chiefs quarterback who will certainly be that himself someday. The Chiefs are trying to do something Brady did when he was in New England, which is to win consecutive Super Bowls.
For most of this season, this Kansas City team didn't look as dominant as it did last year. But the Chiefs amped it up big time against the Bills. When Mahomes is cooking, they are almost impossible to stop.
We know the Bucs and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles love to blitz, but that's suicide against Mahomes, who is the best in the league against the blitz. Injuries to both starting tackles for the Chiefs could mean less blitzing is needed, but I still think the Bucs will be true to who they are, which is an attack defense. That could and should mean a lot of big plays.
When the two teams met earlier this year, a game won by the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill destroyed the Bucs secondary with eight catches for 210 yards and two scores — in the first half alone. Mahomes threw for 359 yards in the first half as he ate up that attacking defense. The Chiefs' loss of both starting tackles could impact that some here as Tampa Bay's edge rushers are coming off an impressive game against Aaron Rodgers.
The first meeting was close in the end, but the Chiefs looked like the much better team that day as they jumped to a big lead and then held on. Brady threw two picks and the Tampa Bay offensive line had trouble with the attacking, blitzing style that Kansas City used that day. The Tampa Bay line has come on strong in the second half of the season and into the playoffs, so they should be better prepared this time around.
That could mean a lot of big plays for Brady as well. Tampa Bay has also run the ball better in the postseason with Leonard Fournette, which could help take some of that pressure away.
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The Chiefs secondary impressed against the Bills as they used a 4-1-6 defensive grouping for much of the game. They will likely use that again here to try and take away Brady's big plays, but that's where Fournette and Ronald Jones could be key.
A running game would keep Mahomes off the field, but that's a nice plan until you look up and it's 14-3. Then what?
That's why I think both coaches will be who they are, which is aggressive, offensive-minded men. With two quarterbacks playing at a high level, one the greatest ever and the other on his way to making a case for himself being that someday, I would expect a lot of offense. With two aggressive defenses, look for some big turnovers as well.
That means a lot of points. This one will be high-scoring, but in the end I think Mahomes and his skill players, especially Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, will get the best of Tampa Bay's defense.
Blitz and you will pay.
Mahomes has always been that way, and that won't change on the biggest stage.
Pete Prisco's NFL picks for divisional round: Saints sweep Brady's Bucs, Bills edge Ravens in thriller.
Prisco reveals his divisional round picks, including the Chiefs sending the Browns home.
The playoffs are supposed to be when the best rise to the top.
I didn't last week.
I went 2-3-1 against the spread for a disappointing week, although I did have the Washington Football Team and that spread bloated to 10 by kickoff. We had it at eight when we made the picks, so it's a push.
For the most part, it was a bad week. My season record is now 125-127-9. That, quite frankly, stinks.
Let's hope I can turn it around this week with a clean sweep. I do like this week's card and have been good in the divisional round in year's past. So let's go.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers.
This is the classic playoff battle of the No. 1 offense in Green Bay against the top defense in Los Angeles. What will give? If the Rams have a limited Aaron Donald, who has a rib injury, that will impact the defense in a big way. The single blocks won't come as much for the edge rushers, which will put a lot more pressure on the back end. The Packers were playing outstanding offense before the break, but the time off could hurt. Aaron Rodgers vs. the Rams secondary and Jalen Ramsey will be fun, especially if Ramsey spends a lot of time on Davante Adams. The Rams will likely start Jared Goff and his injured thumb, but there is a chance it could be John Wolford. Goff did a nice job last week off the bench against Seattle. The key for the Rams will be how well they run it against a Green Bay defense that has trouble with the run. The Packers defense did play better in the final four games. I think the Packers will be too much in this one. Look for Rodgers and company to move on.
Pick: Packers 26, Rams 14.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills.
This will be a battle of two star quarterbacks, one who runs it as well as anybody ever has from the position in Lamar Jackson, and the other in Josh Allen, who has been outstanding throwing it this season. The Ravens will make no bones about what they want to do on offense, which is to pound it. They are averaging 262 rushing yards a game in their last six games. The Bills have improved against the run from earlier in the year, but this will be a big challenge. The strategy from coordinator Leslie Frazier will be something to watch in terms of trying to keep Jackson contained. The Ravens defense is back healthy now, which is why they impressed last week against the Titans. But this is a bigger challenge in facing Allen. This will be a close game, but in the end I think Allen will make the game-winning plays late to pull it out -- but it will be razor-thin close.
Pick: Bills 27, Ravens 26.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs.
The Browns impressed in a big way winning last week at Pittsburgh without coach Kevin Stefanski. But this is a whole different step up in terms of challenges. The Chiefs are the best in the AFC. The Cleveland defense struggled to slow Ben Roethlisberger and his passing game, which means Patrick Mahomes has to be licking his chops. I expect a big day out of the Chiefs passing game. The Browns can run it, which will be the plan. But those plans can get wrecked when the Chiefs get the offense going. That will put a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to make plays in the passing game. I just don't think the Browns can keep up. For that reason, the Chiefs will move on with an impressive offensive showing that will be a lot like their two playoff wins at home last year.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Browns 23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints.
The Saints beat the Bucs twice in the regular season, and now get the chance for the hat trick. New Orleans beat up Tom Brady in those two wins, picking him off five times and sacking him six times. In the last meeting in November, the defense abused Brady. But Brady has come alive since then. He's playing great football. The Saints defense will still be a major challenge. They have been good against the pass all season, which will make for an interesting battle between those two units. On the other side, Tampa Bay's defense didn't play well last week against Washington. If it plays like that this week, this will be ugly. I don't think it will. But Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara will do enough to find a way to win this one. Saints get the sweep and move on.
Pete Prisco.
Pete Prisco's Super Bowl 2021 pick: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady make big plays in Chiefs-Bucs shootout.
Prisco says the Chiefs and Bucs will stay true to their aggressive natures in high-scoring game; here's who'll prevail.
2021 Super Bowl: Ranking every single starter for Chiefs and Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.
The Chiefs have more top-end talent, but the Bucs are deeper.
Pete Prisco's picks for NFC, AFC title games: Aaron Rodgers sends Tom Brady home, Bills-Chiefs a thriller.
Prisco reveals his picks for the conference championship games, including a one-point game in Kansas City.
Pete Prisco's NFL picks for divisional round: Saints sweep Brady's Bucs, Bills edge Ravens in thriller.
Prisco reveals his divisional round picks, including the Chiefs sending the Browns home.
Pete Prisco's NFL picks for wild-card round: Lamar Jackson nabs first playoff win, Steelers send Browns home.
Prisco reveals his wild-card round picks, including a two-point game in Seattle.
NFL Power Rankings: Browns, Rams make biggest leaps from Week 1 to end of season, top 10 was eerily spot on.
Eight of Pete Prisco's original top 10 teams are in the playoffs; his preseason Super Bowl picks are still his top two.
Pete Prisco's Week 17 NFL picks: Cowboys make playoffs with Eagles win, Packers earn top seed, Jets upset Pats.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 17, including the Eagles upsetting Washington to send the Cowboys to the playoffs.
NFL Week 17 Power Rankings: Chiefs, Packers same top two as opening week, Dolphins soar to No. 9, Colts sink.
Pete Prisco's preseason Super Bowl picks are still his top two, while a Week 17 full of meaningful games awaits.
Pete Prisco's Week 16 NFL picks: Rams rebound to upset Seahawks, Steelers and Saints get back on track.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 16, including the Packers pounding the Titans to lock up the top seed.
NFL Week 16 Power Rankings: Seahawks up to No. 4, Rams fall five spots, Jaguars sink to bottom and have hope.
Pete Prisco says Jacksonville won by seeing the Jets jump above them, while his top three stayed steady.
Pete Prisco's Week 15 NFL picks: Giants, Cowboys, Washington all deliver upset wins in tight NFC East race.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 15, including why the Bears and Patriots will contribute to an upset-heavy slate.
NFL Week 15 Power Rankings: Steelers keep sinking as Packers and Bills rise into top three, Ravens rebound.
Pete Prisco says Mike Tomlin will get Pittsburgh's ship righted, while the Bears and Washington soar up the rankings.
Pete Prisco's Week 14 NFL picks: Giants win again, Bears finally end slide, Steelers lose again.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 14, including why the Steelers will lose a second straight after starting 11-0.
NFL Week 14 Power Rankings: Chiefs replace Steelers at the top, Browns up to No. 6, Titans take biggest fall.
Pete Prisco wonders if anybody is all that good, while a pair of NFC East teams rise the most.
Pete Prisco's NFL Week 13 picks: Titans over Browns, Falcons upset Saints, Rams rebound vs. Cardinals.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 13, including why the Ravens will win on short rest against well-rested Cowboys.
Pete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an Arizona State national title in football.
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