Special Report, World News, Americas

[gtlthscmaaee]

Yet it is plausible, and even likely, that Russia will engage in other forms of limited escalation to alter the stakes of the war in Ukraine. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, escalation could provide Moscow with a pretext to formally deploy ‘peacekeepers’ or upgrade diplomatic ties with the separatist republics it created in eastern Ukraine, thereby altering the terms of the legal dispute over the Donbas war. Even in the case of a limited Russian provocation in Donbas, massive Russian troop deployments to the flanks would tear down Ukrainian reserves guarding the hinterland, preventing Kyiv from reacting with a strong hand. Secondly, limited escalation around Crimea to capture a small bridgehead on the Ukrainian mainland - an operation formally justified by a lack of water supply on the peninsula but, in practice, designed to increase Kyiv’s military vulnerability - is well within the realm of possibility. The recent deployment of landing craft from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea creates further suspicion on that front.




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