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Sometimes during the fantasy season, you may find that one of your players has had their points changed. A player’s score/stats will be impacted when the official NFL statistics used to calculate them are adjusted, updated, or corrected.
ESPN always works to ensure that matchup scores accurately reflect the real, official NFL statistics and if you notice changes, it is to correct previously incorrect data or react to a stat correction from the league.
There are several scenarios when you might see these changes:
Live Scoring – During the game, scores/stats are updated as they are received. This information may change as more accurate data from the league is reported. Each player's individual points and stats will be accurately reflected once the game is final. Post-game adjustments – There are times when the NFL decides to adjust stats after a game has been concluded. For example, during the game the NFL credits one player with a full sack, then after the post-game review decides instead to award two players half a sack each. This type of stat correction can appear up to seven (7) days after the game was played. Post-game corrections – Sometimes ESPN receives incorrect data in the stats feeds. Most of the time when inaccurate data is detected, the incorrect score/stat is corrected within minutes. Rarely, incorrect scores/stats may not be corrected until the next day. League Manager changes : In League Manager leagues, the LM has the power to adjust scores manually. The reasons for changing a player’s score are completely up to the League Manager. CAUTION: If the LM notices the incorrect scoring before ESPN has updated the stats and uses the Adjust Scoring League Manager tool to manually change the score then afterward when the system updates automatically to reflect the same correction, the impacted team will be awarded double credit for the correction. If this occurs, you should contact your LM and ask them to re-adjust the scoring by reversing their manual adjustment.
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How to Make a Correct Score Bet at a Sportsbook.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
While sports betting can certainly be profitable, it may take bettors awhile to build their bankroll. Traditional bets like betting against the spread or on totals produce profits that are less than one’s original wager. Therefore, betting two spreads at the same odds, and going 1-1 will result in a losing day money-wise overall.
It’s hard to find many single-game wagers that pay out odds of better than 2:1 or 3:1. However, there is one type of bet that has a “lottery ticket” type of feel: a correct score bet.
In this article, we explain what a correct score bet is and how to make such a bet at a sportsbook.
What is a Correct Score Bet?
A correct score bet is a wager that predicts the exact final score of a game. If your correct score prediction does not match exactly to the final score of the game, you lose. Given how difficult it is to predict the exact score of a game, odds for a correct score bet can often be found at 10:1 or better.
Based on the scoring structure of certain sports, correct score betting odds will not be offered on every sport. For example, NBA basketball teams routinely score more than 100 points. To predict an exact final score in a game with that much scoring is downright impossible.
For that reason, correct score bets are much more commonly offered in baseball, soccer, and hockey. There have been sportsbooks that offer correct score bets on football games, but they may limit such action to the biggest games like the playoffs or Super Bowl.
What is an Example of a Correct Score Bet?
The following is an example of correct score betting odds from a soccer match between Russia and Saudi Arabia, graphic courtesy of bet-types.com.
Since goals are usually at a premium in soccer matches, you will notice that the smallest odds are the scores with the least amount of goals. For example, for Russia to win by a score of 1-0 or 2-0, one would win 4.5 times their original wager. However, there are some offerings that would pay out more than 300 times one’s original wager!
Another thing to take note of is the “any other score” option. As you can see from the table, the final score options end with each side winning 6-0. What if Russia were to score seven goals, or win by a score of 6-1? Placing a wager on the “any other score” option would take into account these scenarios. An “any other score” bet would cash if the final score of the match was one that was not already listed in the table.
How Do I Make a Correct Score Bet at a Sportsbook?
On a mobile device or app, follow these steps:
Log into your sportsbook account. Find the league and game you wish to bet on. Look for a heading that says “Game Props” or “More Wagers.” Find the heading that says “Correct Score” or some variation of that. Click on the final score you wish to wager on. Type in the amount of your wager. Review the odds and click “place bet.”
When making a correct score bet in person at a sportsbook, make sure you are very specific in your wording. Tell the cashier you wish to make an “Exact Correct Score” bet. By wording it this way, the cashier should not confuse it with making an against the spread bet. Tell the cashier the exact final score you wish to wager on. Your bet and the subsequent odds will appear on a screen in front of you. If these odds are agreeable and the cashier inputted your bet correctly, tell the cashier your wager amount. Lastly, hand your money to the cashier and take your betting ticket with you.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01 .
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How to predict the score in football betting?
Every bettor wants to know the secret how to make correct match predictions when betting on football. If you are looking for professional punter tips, then you found the right place. The Correct Score bets won’t be a problem for you anymore after reading this betting guide.
Introduction First things first Attack Strength Defence Strength Prediction How does it help us? Finding value Limited potential Comments.
Introduction.
In order to master the art of football prediction, we would need to learn a bit of mathematics, to be more precise, the Poisson Distribution. It is a mathematical concept that helps to outline the possible outcomes converting the historical mean data. Let’s use a simple example to make it less complicated. Assume that Team A scores 1.7 goals per match. By putting this data into the distribution formula, we will get the following results:
Team A scores 0 goals 18.3% of the time Team A scores 1 goal 31% of the time Team A scores 2 goals 26.4% of the time Team A scores 3 goals 15% of the time.
How does it work? Let’s find out.
First things first.
Before you can predict the score, you have to make a couple of additional steps. First of all, we have to find out the average number of goals each team scores. For that, we would need the В«Attack StrengthВ» and В«Defence StrengthВ» data.
This data plays an essential role in our calculations. If our data range would be too long, the results won’t be satisfying, and if too short, it could happen that some data would be beyond our designated rage. You always can get this data from the seasonal statistics of any football league/competition.
Interested in football betting? Check out our football betting guide section here .
Attack Strength.
To calculate this part, we would need to find the average of home and away goals scored by each team.
This is very easy to do. You just have to divide the total amount of goals by the number of games played.
Season total goals scored at home / number of games (in season) Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
For the example purposes, let’s use the 2015/2016 English Premier League data. By putting all the necessary information into the simple formula, we would get:
Average number of goals scored at home: 1.492 Average number of goals scored away: 1.207.
Attack Strength is the ration between the league’s and the team’s averages.
Defence Strength.
Good news, you don’t have to do much more calculations here, as they have already been done. All you need to do it reverse the previous results because the goals a home team scores are conceded by the away team and vice versa. Therefore, our results will look the following way:
Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207 Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492.
Once again, the Defence Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s averages.
Prediction.
Once you gathered all the above information, you can try to predict the goals. Just apply these formulas following these easy steps:
Step 1 - You have to take the total home goals scored by a team and divide it by the total number of home games. Step 2 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average home goals divided by the total home games.
Agenda: Team’s home goals - THG Team’s home matches - THM League’s home goals - LHG League’s home matches - LHM.
(THG/THM) / (LHG/LHM) = Attack Strength.
Step 3 - You have to take the total goals conceded by a team while away and divide it by the total number of away games. Step 4 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average goals conceded while away divided by the total away games.
Agenda: Team’s conceded goals - TCG Team’s away matches - TAM League’s conceded goals - LCG League’s away matches - LAM.
(TCG/TAM) / (LCG/LAM) = Defense Strength.
Step 4 - Now, all you left to do is to calculate the possible number of goals. To do so, just multiply the home team’s Attack Strength by the away team’s Defense Strength and by the league’s average number of home goals.
Agenda: Attack Strength - AS Defense Strength - DS Home Team - HT Away Team - AT.
HTAS x ATDS x LHG = Possible home team goals ATAS x HTDS x LHG = Possible away team goals.
How does it help us?
If you have done all the above calculations, you are all set to predict the score. Of course, you can go ahead and utilize the formula created by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, but since we’re kind of advanced on technology, you can use one of the Poisson Distribution online calculators. It will do most of the work for you in a matter of seconds.
Poisson Distribution formula: P(x; Ој) = (e-Ој) (Ојx) / x!
Just input the goal occurrences and team’s scoring probability, and you all get the chances of each possible case. Let’s show you an example.
Assume that Team A’s scoring probability is 1.623 and Team B’s - 0.824. Looking at the matchup between two, we are interested in 0-5 goals for each one. Using the aforementioned tools, we are going to get the following results.
Team A vs. Team B Poisson Distribution.
Goals 0 1 2 3 4 5 Team A 19.73% 32.02% 25.99% 14.06% 5.07% 1.85% Team B 43.86% 36.14% 14.89% 4.09% 0.84% 0.14%
screenshot from keisan.casio.com.
As you can see the most probable outcome is going to be Team A - 1, Team B - 0. You can also multiply the possibilities of each score together and get the chances of that particular score (1-0). In our case, it will be 0.3202 x 0.4386 = 0.1404 or 14.04%.
Congratulations, now you know how to calculate the score lines. Compare your results with the odds offered by the online bookies and see if you can find anything you can take advantage of. Add some personal knowledge to it and no bookmaker would be able to stop you.
Please, click here to see the list of our recommended bookmakers.
Finding value.
A couple of things before you can go, it is not enough to know just the most probable outcome. What about the draw scenario? Don’t worry, we got you covered here as well. Instead of finding the chances of each draw separate, we can calculate the possibility of a draw occurring regardless of a score.
Of course, by doing so, we are exposing ourselves to the infinite amount of options but how often have you seen a football match that finished at 6:6 or 10:10? We bet you won’t even be able to come up with one right now. The chances of such scores happening are close to zero, therefore we can simply neglect them.
Learn more about the most common results in football. Click here to read more .
In order to find the chance of the draw happening between Team A and Team B, we need to calculate each draw scoreline chances separate and then add them all together. By using the data from the table above, we would get the following result, 0.2472 or 24.72%.
Pro Tp : convert this into odds and compare them to the ones your bookmaker has to offer. In our case, the draw odds in such a matchup would be 4.05 (61/20). Use this advice to find value.
Limited potential.
Poisson Distribution is a convenient tool. Unfortunately, it is a simple prediction model, which does not find its application in certain situations. Such things like game status, locker-room environment, coach influence on the player, etc. are beyond the formula’s reach. It also fails to factor in the physical condition of the player, as well as home-field advantage.
The formula is not designed for all of that. Though, it is perfectly suited for lower-ranked leagues/competitions, where it is easier to gain an edge over the bookmaker . You would probably struggle to beat the bookie just by solely using just this distribution method for major league markets as top online bookmakers have far more advanced tools and resources at their disposal.
Remember, the odds you find via this method DO NOT include the betting margin , which has a huge impact on finding value. We suggest using this technique as a great add-on to your assessment and analysis arsenal. Happy betting!
Comments.
Hello dave, No, you can use Poisson Distribution to help make a more accurate prediction. However, complicated situations are beyond this method's potential. Please, let us know if you have any further questions. Regards, Bettingwell Team.
Hello dave, No, you can use Poisson Distribution to help make a more accurate prediction. However, complicated situations are beyond this method's potential. Please, let us know if you have any further questions. Regards, Bettingwell Team.
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