7 “Must Know” Correct Score Market Tips.
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Trading the CORRECT SCORE market on Betfair can be one of the most exciting markets to trade due to the big prices that are available and, hence, the big profits that can be made too. However, it is important to consider that the Correct Score market is also one of the hardest football markets to master and should also not be treated in the same way as other football trading markets.
Here are some tips to help you with your Correct Score market trading:
Understand How The Correct Score Markets Move.
There are so many results covered in the Correct Score and almost every match has a different profile so it is hard to have a “one size” fits all approach to this market. The markets behave wildly different depending on the competitiveness of the match and so it is important to understand this before you even put a penny in the markets. Therefore, watch how the Correct Score markets move in-play and how they react as goals go or don’t go in. Your trading bank will thank you later believe me!
Know how the markets react if no early goals.
Know how the markets react to early goals.
When goals are scored early this can usually cause most Correct Score traders a lot of panic. Previously, from the 3 scorelines that would steam in (1-0, 0-0 or 0-1) you will find that 2 of them are dead and the single remaining scoreline of either 1-0 or 0-1 has actually drifted in price and will probably now be the same price the 0-0 was before the goal. At this point you then have to assume the 2-0 and 1-1 scorelines will act similar to how 1-0 and 0-1 would have acted before the goal and they will now be the prices steaming. It sounds confusing but is not so hard to understand once it is in-play.
Be Prepared To Go Bust.
The Correct Score market is different from most football trading markets in that you can and you will lose your whole stake from time to time. There will be times when you back certain scores before a match only for it to go goal crazy and your whole stake to be lost before half-time. Sometimes there literally is nothing you can do in this market and chasing or backing other scores in a panic is not the way to react. Sometimes you just have to swallow the loss and move on to the next match. If you are selective then these occasions will be rare.
Keep It Simple.
The big problem many beginners have with the Correct Score market is that they over complicate it. Dutching. Reverse Dutching. Laying to Back. Backing to Lay then trading. It all gets a bit much.
The best approach to this market (unless you have a magic formula) is to simply back a few scores that you think the match is most likely to end in and then trade out at a pre-defined point. I might fancy a team to win a match either 2-0 or 3-0 so I back both those scores with the view that if it is 3-0 after 70 minutes then I will green up, if it is 2-0 then I will lay off the liability and leave more profit on the 3-0 scoreline. Any other score then my trade is obviously dead but that is why this market can be such a volatile one to trade and I signed up to that when I entered it.
At the end of the day the above trading plan was quite a simple one and that is all you need to think about when starting to trade this market.
Stick To The “Predictable” Markets.
When starting out with the Correct Score market I would suggest sticking to the markets that are more “predictable”. This is a bit of a paradox since if we could predict the markets then we would not need to gamble but I actually mean sticking to markets that have a strong, clear favourite who is expected to win to nil. These are home favourites are usually priced 1.60 or lower and who you expect to win the match 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. This is a great way to start to learn this way of trading as these matches are usually a lot less stressful since you can often find the away team just parks the bus so you do not need to worry about goals going against you. Most of the time anyway!
Trade Only Markets With Good Liquidity.
This is very, very important. These days I only ever trade the Correct Score market on Premier League or Champions League matches since getting a bet matched to get out of the market in a hurry can cause quite a bit of stress in a market with low liquidity. So whilst you are a beginner do not think you can trade any and every Correct Score market.
Finally…
As said, the Correct Score markets are full of lots of opportunity and are one of the few markets that can create big profits from small out lays. If you want to know more about this market then check out our full MEGA GUIDE to the Correct Score market.
Laying on 0-0 in Half Time Score, with loss recovery.
Description.
This example demonstrates how to connect Match Odds and Half Time Score football markets on BetFair. It lays on the 0-0 score in Half Time Score if certain conditions are met (easy to adjust). Besides, it utilises a simple staking plan for loss recoupment.
Triggers.
Here is the full list of conditions that the trigger checks before placing the bet.
The favourite team must play at home Its price must be between 1.1 and 3.4 The price of the 0-0 selection in Half Time Score must be below 3.0 The bet will be placed at In-Play, if the score is not opened yet.
It is easy to adjust these conditions by editing the constants in the file:
min_fav_price - the favourite's minimum price in Match Odds max_fav_price - the favourite's maximum price in Match Odds fav_index - the index of the favourite team. 1 - home, 2 - away ht_score_index - the index of the selection in Half Time Score to lay on. 1 corresponds to 0-0 ht_max_price - maximum price of the selection to lay on in Half Time Score init_bet - the initial bet size max_bet - the maximum bet size.
To run these triggers, you will need to load and refresh the following football markets for each match where you intend to bet:
Match Odds; Half Time Score.
The trigger requires the market score. Please ensure this setting is ticked: Settings > Monitoring Options > Market Refresh > Download match score.
Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy.
Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy.
Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.
They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.
Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.
When is the best time to lay the correct score?
Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.
There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.
Cup games are good for this strategy.
Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.
One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.
Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.
Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.
Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.
Is the leading team looking to counter? Are they wasting time using stalling tactics? Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity? Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?
Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy.
Example.
Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.
Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.
It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.
Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful ВЈ28.53 was made after commission for a stake of ВЈ70.50.
I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half . The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.
This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.
Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.
Resources.
Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.
Laying the Correct Score at HT – A Guide.
Here we will take a look at the approach of laying the correct score at half time in a football match and how you can potentially profit from this strategy.
First we will go though what it means to lay the correct score at HT and how you can set up a lay bet.
What is Laying the Correct Score at Half-Time?
Laying the correct score at HT involves using a betting exchange like Betfair or Smarkets to place bets such that you are betting against certain scorelines being the final score in a football match.
So you could lay the current score at half-time, expecting that there will be at least one goal scored in the second half.
Or you could lay more than one scoreline in the correct score market at HT, with the belief that the game is going to move in a certain direction.
Example.
Here is an example. Newcastle are playing Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.
The score is 0-0 at half-time.
It has been a fairly open game with lots of chances being created, so we think there will be goals in the second half.
We then go to the correct score market on Betfair and see that the odds on the current score of 0-0 are 5.2.
So we place a lay bet of ВЈ10 and wait to see how the game unfolds.
Thankfully there was a goal in the 61st minute as Spurs broke the deadlock, so the bet has won and we collected ВЈ10 of profit (minus commission).
That is a simple illustration of a lay the correct score at HT bet. Below we will look at alternative lay bets you can place.
Best Exchange for Laying the Draw at HT.
We recommend the Betfair exchange for laying the draw at half time as it is the most liquid and covers the greatest number of matches. However Smarkets is catching up with Betfair so it is worth checking it out too, especially on the bigger matches as there may not be much difference and Smarkets has lower commission rates.
Laying More than One Score in the Correct Score Market at Half-Time.
Another approach to laying the correct score at HT is to lay more than one scoreline if you consider that a game is likely to go a certain way.
So for example you may think that although a game is 0-0 at half-time, it is unlikely to stay that way for the second half.
One side is dominating the game and seems likely to go on and win it, so you decide to lay 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2.
This is a somewhat risky strategy as you will tend to be laying at quite high odds, but at the same time by laying three separate scores you are reducing your liability compared to just laying one.
Example.
Here is an example. It is a Champions League qualification game between Hoffenheim and Liverpool.
Liverpool lead 0-1 at HT but it is an open game and both sides are creating chances. We think there will be more goals, but we don’t think Liverpool will run away with the game, so we lay 0-1, 0-3 and also 2-2.
The game ends up finishing 1-2 to Liverpool and our lay bets have won. This is a good outcome for us in this match.
This shows how you can lay different scores to come up with a winning outcome.
Advantages of Laying the Correct Score at HT.
Laying the correct score at HT can deliver a high percentage of winning bets, as most games will have another goal in the second half.
This can be particularly true if you focus on certain teams and certain matches, which we will look at in more detail below.
It is also the case that there tend to be more goals scored in the latter stages of a football match. This might be because teams tire towards the end, or sides may be prepared to push forward more to grab a winner.
But if you have a look at the stats, they show a strong bias towards late goals.
Here are some example from the website soccerstats , looking firstly at the Premier League:
As you can see, a much higher percentage of goals were scored towards the end of the game than earlier on.
This is the same for other leagues as well, such as Serie A in Italy:
And also from Spain’s Primera Liga:
As you can see, the numbers are very similar across different leagues, but show that a high proportion of goals are scored late on in games.
This is good news for laying the current score at HT, meaning you have a strong chance of there being a goal.
Another advantage is that it can be fun cheering on another goal, even if you don’t mind who wins the game.
Liquidity tends to be good on the correct score as well, as it is one of the most popular markets on Betfair after the main match odds and over/under markets.
So all in all there are quite a few advantages to laying the correct score at HT.
Disadvantages of Laying the Correct Score at HT.
At the same time, there are some disadvantages to laying the correct score at HT.
For one, you are risking quite a bit of liability to make just a small profit. In the above example of Newcastle v Tottenham for instance, we were risking ВЈ42 to win just ВЈ10. So if one of these lays goes wrong, it can do quite a bit of damage to your bank.
The other thing is that if you have laid the current score at HT and there is not a goal, it can be very frustrating to watch the game, particularly if lots of chances are being created but not being put away. Perhaps the woodwork is being hit and the keeper is making some spectacular saves. It can be tough to take when this happens.
Our advice is to place the lay and then not to watch the game after that. This way you won’t suffer the emotions of the ups and downs of the game and so are less likely to lose control of your betting. It will help you to stay calmer and focused.
Beware also that different leagues and teams are substantially different to how they approach a game of football. The Greek league, for example, is notoriously low scoring and you may find that there are fewer second half goals than in free-scoring leagues such as the Dutch Eredivisie, the Bundesliga or the English Premier League.
Strategies for Laying the Correct Score at HT.
If you are looking for a strategy to laying the correct score at HT, a good place to start could be the soccerstats website.
If you select a league and then under the heading for that league where there are certain tabs, select “Timing,” you will be presented with a table with each team’s goals by 15 minute segment and by half.
Below is an example from the English Premier League:
This will give you an idea of which teams tend to score and concede lots of goals in the second half of games, making them excellent choices for laying the correct score at half time.
For example, in the table you will see that Arsenal scored an amazing 50 goals in the second half of games compared to 27 in the first half, meaning they had a high number of games where the score at HT was not the score at the end of the game.
Similarly, Hull City conceded a shocking 52 goals in the second half of matches, meaning they would also have been good candidates for the lay bet.
Using statistics like this can help you identify which teams may present value in the correct score market.
Using In-Running Tools.
Another approach to laying the correct score can be to use tools to help you rather than doing research yourself.
–In-Play Trading.
Alternatively, you may wish to look at In-Play Trading , which is a scanner that follows matches live and tracks how many chances are being created, shots taken, corners gained etc and then awards a rating based on that.
So those matches with a high rating indicate pressure is being put on and a goal is likely to come soon. These can be good matches to lay the correct score in, as generally goals tend to follow when a lot of pressure is being created. It obviously won’t happen all the time, but at least you have an edge over other punters in being able to use these stats to your advantage.
Conclusion.
Laying the correct score at HT is an interesting bet to take on and is not without its risks. You are generally laying at quite high odds, so beware that you can lose quite a bit of your bank if the bet goes against you.
However, with some use of stats and betting tools, you can give yourself an edge over other punters and potentially profit from the market.
If you are going to bet on it, make sure you use sensible money management and only risk what you can afford to lose.
Good luck with your laying and we hope you have found this guide useful.
Laying the half time score in football matches.
Is there value in laying the current score at half time in the correct score market?
Laying the Half Time Score — One of the most common questions I am asked is do many people make money laying the current score at halftime in a football match? In other words, will there be a goal in the second half.
One person found that laying at halftime in German and Spanish games seems to be very easy money. But he found it was better to steer clear of French games.
It does not take a lot of research to see if any given game is a good one to try the strategy with.
The critical error he made with one game was not watching the first 45 minutes and going in blindly, and it is usually best to watch and see the sort of chances that are being created during the first half.
There are several ways to do this and most are effective. The first one is just a straight lay.
Let’s look at a typical Premier League game between Manchester City and Arsenal and see if we can establish what the chances are of a second half goal. The first thing I look at is the head to head and we can see the past 11 matches below.
From 11 games between the sides, we can see nine have had a second half goal. That equals 82% and converts to a price of 1.22. To work out the price, just divide the times the even happens into 100. So 100/82 = 1.2195 or 1.22 when rounded. So now we know the price for the event happening so we need to know the price for the event not happening.
So obviously, if something is an 82% chance of happening, it must be an 18% chance of not happening because the chance of any event either happening or not is 100%. So converting an 18% chance into a price is the same, 100/18 = 5.55 so you have a price of either 5.50 or 5.60.
I then like to look at how each team has gone over the season and see how those numbers stack up.
We can see that from 18 home games, City matches have had a second half goal in 15 of 20 or 83% (1.20) and 18 Arsenal away games have had a second half goal in 11 of 18 or 61% (1.64).
So 100 divided by 1.32 gives us 75%. We now believe that the chance of a second half goal in this game is 75%. Which means the chance of no goal is 25%. The price of 25% is 4.00 (100/25) and so when this game is halftime, no matter what the score is, when we look at the price of the current halftime score, if it is less than 4.00 we have good value to lay. If it is above 4.00 then we have poor value and should avoid laying the correct score.
To be exact, 1.32 is 75.76% so the inverse price is 24.24% or 4.13, so we really do not want to be laying above 4.10.
Laying the Half Time Score.
One strategy some people use is to wait until the price is below 4.00 and then lay as the liability is reduced. I think this startegy is flawed as just because a price is below 4.00, does not make it value.
By the time the price gets below 4.00 and the “perceived” value, there might only be 30 minutes left in the game, which would not make it value at all.
To make a price value midway through a half, you need the stats on how many times these teams have goals after 60 minutes. And then you need to relate that to the current price.
So to start with, I suggest you stick to the strategy above, find out the probability of a goal in the second half, reconcile it with head to head and season stats, and then calculate your own price and see how it stacks up against the market price on the exchange.
If the value is there, go for it as you will make money over a year making value bets and will certainly lose money taking positions that are bad value.
Give it a try and see how you get on.
For those interested in where the above stats came from, it is Football For Labs.
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