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Pete Prisco's NFL Week 9 picks: Patriots squeak out win over Jets, Ravens hold off Colts and more predictions.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 9, including why the Patriots will win a closer game than most expect.
I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn't fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it's time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That's sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that's up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it's the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won't matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21.
Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts.
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills.
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won't happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league's best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn't look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets.
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven't won yet. They won't win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren't a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21.
Week 9 NFL expert picks and Vegas predictions: Browns, Jaguars cover.
R.J. White went deep in the Las Vegas SuperContest two of the past four years.
Picking NFL games has been extremely profitable if you've listened to CBS Sports NFL editor R.J. White. In fact, if you placed $100 on each of White's NFL expert picks over the last two-plus seasons, you'd be up over $2,700. Smart bettors tail his selections.
White has been SportsLine's top pro football analyst, and over that span, the CBS Sports NFL editor and nationally-recognized NFL Draft expert has gone 235-187 on NFL picks against the spread. The stats guru, whose picks are coveted by fans everywhere, has also cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, twice in the past four years. Now, he's back and crushing his SuperContest selections again in 2019.
"The worst part of the Browns' schedule is over after consecutive games against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots, five teams with a combined 31-7 record," White told SportsLine. "That means this is the low point of Cleveland's stock, and as such we're getting them at a favorable line against a Broncos team that has no reason to fight with Brandon Allen at quarterback. Even if their defense (fifth in points per drive allowed) has another strong game here, the Browns' offense only needs to get to 17 points to expect a cover, something they should accomplish with a run-based approach."
"I believe Gardner Minshew's progress from the 13-12 loss the Jaguars suffered in his first career start will be enough for them to win this game," White told SportsLine. "The Texans' defense has gotten progressively worse since that game, and they rank just 22nd in net yards per attempt. Even if the Jags are down in the second half, I think Minshew can come from behind and win against Houston's mediocre secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Jags front can have success against a Houston offensive line that's getting healthier, but still isn't 100 percent. The Jags lean on their familiarity with this London trip and get the win."
White also is calling for a favorite to cover with ease on Sunday. The line is way off in this game, White says. He's only sharing which teams to pick at SportsLine.
So which teams should you back in Week 9? And which team cruises to a cover? Visit SportsLine now to see who you should back in Week 9, plus see which favorite covers with ease, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament.
Week 9 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks Advice: Expert tips for football pools.
After a chalky week where the public largely rode favorites to favorable results, Week 9 features some tougher calls in NFL confidence and pick 'em pools. The number-crunching experts from TeamRankings break down win odds and pick percentages for five key games to help you find the right picks for your football pool.
As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !
Review of last week's picks.
Last week, we highlighted three favorites that were coming at relative value given the large pick percentages on every favorite last week. We won’t take too much credit for suggesting that you take the top favorite, Minnesota, and slot them as your top confidence play. But San Francisco and Green Bay were two favorites that were being picked a little less by the public than other similar teams, and both got big wins.
Meanwhile, the two value gambles we highlighted for consideration in weekly contests both came close but lost in heartbreaking fashion. Tampa Bay had their chances -- and some controversy -- in the loss at Tennessee, while Denver led the Colts until Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard game-winning field goal to end the game.
Week 9 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools.
As we always caution, you shouldn't necessarily make every one of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including rules, size, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check our pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Week 9 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their respective chances to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, as both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis)
The Colts are 5-2, but all seven games have been close affairs that could have gone either way. They were coming at value for the first month of the season as the public shied away from them, but now, the public is heavily on Indianapolis (73 percent of early picks are on the Colts), as it's tied for the second-best record in the AFC entering the week.
The Steelers, though, are the Vegas favorite in this one at home. Both our models and the betting markets give the Steelers a 52-percent chance to win. Our predictive power rankings have Pittsburgh just above the Colts on a neutral field, with the difference in record explained by close-game performance (The Steelers are 1-3 in games decided by eight or less).
Cleveland Browns (at Denver)
Joe Flacco has been ruled out of this Sunday’s game against Cleveland because of a neck injury. Coincidentally or not, Flacco was very vocal in his criticism of head coach Vic Fangio’s conservatism at the end of last week's loss to the Colts. As a result, Brandon Allen, a former sixth-round pick in 2016 by the Jaguars, is set to start. The 27-year-old Allen has been waived by both Jacksonville and the Rams prior to signing with Denver after rookie quarterback Drew Lock went on IR. He has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game.
So far, the pick popularity on this one has it pretty even, with the Browns getting 53 percent of the selections from the public. Sports books that have put a line back up on the board are generally in the 2.5-point to three-point range with Cleveland as the favorite. (Prior to the Flacco news, Denver was the favorite of around 1.5 points). Right now, Cleveland is coming at value as the favorite, and where the popularity ends up will determine whether that holds true by Sunday.
Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit)
The Raiders have lost two in a row after their bye week and finally get to return home to play Detroit. One thing to keep in mind is just how infrequently the Raiders have played in Oakland this year. This is their first true home game since Sept. 15th against the Chiefs, as they have played four games on the road plus traveled to London and had a bye since then.
Oakland is a two-point favorite against the Lions and have implied win odds of 54 percent and public pick percentage of 53 percent. While that is not a huge value, you are still getting the betting favorite in a spot where almost half the public is going the other way.
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. If you take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, the joke could be on you.
The picks below are not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, they're probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries -- or if you only care about winning weekly prizes -- these highly unpopular underdogs have compelling profiles.
Jacksonville (vs. Houston in London)
Jacksonville lost its first matchup with Houston back in Week 2 when Gardner Minshew made his first career start, and it came up just short on a two-point conversion in an attempt to take a late lead. This game is a near toss-up in London, with Houston as the early 1.5-point favorite. But two-thirds of the public is going with Deshaun Watson and the Texans, which provides value in weekly contests to go opposite the public and take a team that has a realistic chance of victory.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Green Bay)
The Packers are rolling, moving to 7-1 with the road win at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Chargers ended a three-game losing streak, but not necessarily in impressive fashion, as they needed a late field goal miss to win in Chicago. Now, these teams will meet in Los Angeles, where the Chargers will nominally be the home team but the stands are likely to be filled with green shirts.
The Chargers come in as a three-point underdog with about a 41-percent chance of winning, according to our models. But only eight percent of the public is going with Los Angeles. While it’s not the best pick in all formats, rolling with the Chargers in larger weekly pools provides a lot of value given their extremely low popularity for a team with a realistic chance of winning.
Which of these five NFL Week 9 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 9, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Pittsburgh or Cleveland, or you take a chance on an upset like the Chargers or Jaguars.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !
NFL picks, predictions against the spread for Week 9.
Let's hope our NFL game picks and predictions against the spread in Week 9 are a lot less spookier than the results of Week 8. Right before the halfway point of the 2020 season, there were a slew of shocking upsets, with blowouts and big comebacks alike by underdogs.
But as the league tends to be a week-to-week, opponent-by-opponent proposition in most cases, it's time to shake off what just happened and focus solely on the upcoming matchups. Based on the numbers set in Las Vegas, there are more challenges tied to some tough contests to call.
Here's diving into our latest round of pigskin prognostications with the fearless forecast for the next 14 games on the schedule:
Stats of the Week.
Week 8 straight up: 7-6.
Week 8 against the spread: 7-5.
Season straight up: 77-40.
Season against the spread: 74-43.
Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, Fox.
The Saints took advantage of Tom Brady learning his new team in Week 1, with a pick six against him that made the ultimate difference. While New Orleans has the same solid identity from that game, Tampa Bay has found a near-elite level of defense with Brady passing like he's in his prime again. Both teams should be fully loaded with wide receivers for Drew Brees and Brady, but this comes to down which teamcan better back up a strong run defense with a more impactful pass rush. Look for the Bucs to rattle Brees. Brady has the bigger arm and more dynamic downfield options to settle the score.
Pick :Buccaneers win 31-23and cover the spread.
Thursday, 8:20p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video.
The Packers have been owned by the 49ers of late. San Francisco beat Green Bay twice on the way to Super Bowl 54, 37-8 in the regular season and 37-20 in the playoffs. But now there are many questions about the 49ers' offense, starting with the health and effectiveness of Jimmy Garoppolo. Deebo Samuel isn't playing and Green Bay killer George Kittle may not go on a short week. The Packers might be without running back Aaron Jones another week, but they should feel confident about Aaron Rodgers passing well on San Francisco's defense with a lesser pass rush and thinner secondary. The Packers take advantage of the 49ers shuffling because of injuries, rebounding from a home loss on a long short-week road trip.
Pick :Packers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Ravens have lost control of the AFC North to the Steelers. Lamar Jackson is making many mistakes and their passing game has been limited while their running game can still dominate. The Colts' defense comes in playing well,makingbig plays all over the field. Philip Rivers has played better of late, too. This screams like an ugly battle of attrition where yards are tough to come by with two stout all-around defenses on the field. While Jackson will run out of trouble at key points, Rivers cannot.
Pick :Ravens win 23-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Seahawks ripped through the 49ers' defense with a little help from the running game for Russell Wilson. They should have their backfield healthier to rack up big rushing yards on Buffalo and open things up for Wilson to exploit all the Bills' defensive backs not named Tre'Davious White. Josh Allen continues to fade hard out of any kind of fringe MVP talk, just in time for Wilson to all but lock up the award going into the second half. The Seahawks' run defense is good and the pass rush is waking up a little, too. Pete Carroll gets another strong East Coast road trip out of his team.
Pick :Seahawks win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Bears can struggle against the run, so Derrick Henry will keep the Titans in the game. But the concern is that Ryan Tannehill has little margin for error in the passing game because Tennessee's defense isn't doing anything much to stop other teams. If the Bears can contain Henry, they will get in Tannehill's face and get him to pass into more mistakes. On other side, Nick Foles should be comfortable throwing all over the field and also get consistent backfield support from David Montgomery. Chicago goes back to helping its wild-card chances in the NFC while the Titans fall back in the AFC race for a third straight week.
Pick :Bears win 20-17.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Giants will be coming off a short week, having played the tough Buccaneers on Monday night . WFT got a bye in Week 8 to get healthier and is feeling better about its offense and defense because of Kyle Allen and Chase Young. The hosts rallied to nearly beat the Giants in the first meeting on the road. They finish the job at home as Allen gets a little more comfortable than Daniel Jones.
Pick :Washington wins 23-20 but fails to cover the spread.
Sunday,1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Lions got destroyed by the Colts' running backs while rushing and receiving. Dalvin Cook just ripped through the Packers in both capacities, so nothing has to give here. The Lions might be a little shorter on firepower while Cook's presence will open things up for good downfield passing for Kirk Cousins to both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Mike Zimmer keeps cooling his hot seat while Matt Patrick goes back on the burner.
Pick :Vikings win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Christian McCaffrey will be back to help a slumping Panthers offense with Teddy Bridgewater. But the Chiefs' blitzing scheme will not help Bridgewater, and neither will their strong inside-outside pass rush. The Panthers also cannot stop the running of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell and they do not match up well against the speed of the Chiefs' wide receivers. Patrick Mahomes has another huge winning day at home.
Pick :Chiefs win 38-20 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1p.m. ET, CBS.
The Texans and Jaguars are both coming off byes. But while Houston still will have Deshaun Watson starting at quarterback, there's a good chance that rookie Jake Luton starts for Jacksonville with Gardner Minshew hurting. The Jaguars will again heavily on undrafted rookie James Robinson's running back, but Luton is a big wild card in getting the ball to their wide receivers to play off a strong rushing attack. The Texans take advantage of the big QB edge to gain some more respectability under interim coach Romeo Crennel.
Pick :Texans win 31-21 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1p.m. ET, CBS.
Drew Lock had the kind of breakout game he needed as a leader and passer in the amazing comeback against the Chargers. The Falcons, unlike the Chargers, have started to figure out how to close tight games with more aggressive, active and focused defense. Matt Ryan should get Calvin Ridley back and he and Julio Jones cannot be covered by the Broncos' cornerbacks. The Falcons bring some good pressure packages to bring heat on Lock, while Ryan settles in and picks apart a bad secondary behind a depleted pass rush.
Pick :Falcons win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, Fox.
The Raiders love being a grinding team under Jon Gruden. They don't care about style points, just about scoring enough points. This matchup screams for them to keep Josh Jacobs rolling on the ground and deploy Darren Waller often to exploit the Chargers' biggest coverage weakness. That's good news to put Derek Carr in business and in position to outduel Justin Herbert.
Pick :Raiders win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, CBS.
The Steelers will try to improve to 8-0 and get halfway home to an improbable undefeated season. The Cowboys will just be trying to cover a spread this season after going 0-8 ATS in the first half. The line is in question because of uncertainty about Andy Dalton (likely) returning to start at quarterback. But we've also seen Dalton vs. the Steelers' defense many times before in prime stops, and it doesn't play out well. The Steelers will give up some big plays to the Cowboys' wide receivers, but their run defense and pass rush will limit the damage after they do whatever they want with a run-leaning offensive approach to boost Ben Roethlisberger.
Pick :Steelers win 34-17.
Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, CBS.
Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray last met in the 2018 Orange Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal game. Murray played well, passing and running for big numbers on Alabama's defense. Tagovailoa outdueled him, however, with plenty of help from his NFL-boundbackfield. Tagovailoa won his his starting debut for the Dolphins, but didn't do much. Murray has done plenty with his arm and legs as a second-year first-overall pick to put the Cards in NFC playoff contention. Miami's defense is playing well, but Murray is a much different challenge than the Rams' Jared Goff, especially on the road against an offense coming of a bye. Arizona will test Tagovailoa with tough pressure packages, ultimately coming up with a big late sack to seal the game.
Pick :Cardinals win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Monday, 8:15p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Patriots don't get the double-digit treatment against the Jets, as they have now lost four consecutive games since a 2-1 start. The Jets haven't won anything this season and even when their efforts look better, they are not competitive. The Patriots are still playing hard for Bill Belichick and Cam Newton finally gets a defensive break here. New England is much more talented and disciplined defensively. It will simply run as much as it can with Newton and the running backs to shorten this game and end a skid in methodical, uninterestingfashion.
Pick :Patriots win 23-10and cover the spread.
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