05-09-2021, 04:09 PM
п»їNFL expert picks for the AFC and NFC Championship.
We’ve got a big weekend of football ahead.
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The final four teams in the 2020 NFL season are set, with the Packers, Buccaneers, Bills and Chiefs forming the final group nobody a year ago would have expected. Well, outside of the Chiefs.
I think everyone outside of Kansas City is a little bummed we’re not getting a Browns vs. Bills AFC Championship, but honestly, it’s for the best. It would have really taken the wind out of the end of the season to see both the Bills and Browns benefit from two of the league’s best young quarterbacks being forced out in crunch time due to concussion protocol.
The Chiefs are the runaway favorites in the AFC Championship game, which is understandable. Kansas City remains one of the scariest teams in the NFL for a reason, and so long as Patrick Mahomes is on the field they will always have a chance. However, the Bills are hungry, gritty and incredibly talented on both sides of the ball. It’s going to be interesting to see whether having the weight of a city on the shoulders will improve their play, or make it all a little more difficult.
Don’t get me wrong, the Chiefs will still be hungry — but trying to a second straight Super Bowl is a little like wanting dessert after a really good meal. You’ll make room, but you’re not exactly starving. Buffalo, on the other hand, is STARVING for a Lombardi Trophy. I don’t think there’s anything the players and fans won’t do in order to get their hands on it, and part of me feels like it would be good for the national economy. How much money will table manufacturers get if Buffalo wins? They’ll be breaking left and right for two solid weeks. That’s job creation.
I’m spending considerably more time discussing the AFC this week because I think the NFC is a foregone conclusion. The Buccaneers are obviously a good team, but I think you’re kidding yourselves if you think they have more than a slim chance against Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is playing phenomenal football, the team is rolling (and having fun doing it), and it’s just difficult to see Tom Brady and Co really mounting a challenge.
Brady largely struggled against the Saints, he just happened to struggle less than Drew Brees. The Tampa Bay defense was the biggest single reason the Bucs are at this point, but there’s a chasm of difference between the Saints and the Packers — especially the Green Bay offensive line, who dismantled the Rams over the weekend.
I know, I know . “never count out Tom Brady.” I’m kind of counting him out here. Sue me.
Bleacher Report's Expert NFL Conference Championship Picks & Predictions.
For what it's worth, on each of the last four NFL Conference Championship Sundays, both favorites have either covered with impressive wins together or fallen short of expectations with close wins or losses together.
It happened most recently when the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers easily disposed of the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers, respectively, last January. The year before that, the New Orleans Saints were upset by the Los Angeles Rams and the Chiefs lost in overtime to the New England Patriots as a three-point fave.
Will that trend continue this year? Bleacher Report NFL correspondents Gary Davenport , Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski had better hope so, because their consensus picks are aligned this weekend as the Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills.
The gang is 5-4-1 against the spread these playoffs. Here's their attempt to pad that ahead of Super Bowl LV, along with some predictions regarding the top performers of the title round.
Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Jan. 21, at 5 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends courtesy of the Action Network.
No. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at No. 1 Green Bay Packers (14-3)
When : Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET.
Where : Lambeau Field, Green Bay.
TV : Fox.
Referee : Clete Blakeman.
Fans in attendance: Approximately 6,500.
Buccaneers injuries to watch: Wide receiver Antonio Brown (knee) has yet to practice this week. Meanwhile, receivers Mike Evans (knee) and Chris Godwin (quadricep), running back Ronald Jones II (quadricep, finger) and defensive backs Sean Murphy-Bunting (quadricep, ankle) and Jordan Whitehead (knee) have been limited, but there's no concern about Evans and Godwin. Meanwhile, outstanding defensive tackle Vita Vea (leg) has come off injured reserve and has a chance of returning.
Packers injuries to watch: Only tight end Marcedes Lewis (knee) has been out of practice. However, running back AJ Dillon (quadricep), receiver Allen Lazard (wrist, back), edge defender Za'Darius Smith (thumb), wideout Equanimeous St. Brown (knee, ankle), guard Rick Wagner (knee) and back Jamaal Williams (ankle) are all banged up.
Key stat: The Bucs have won their last six games by an average margin of 15 points. The Packers have won their last seven games by an average margin of 15 points.
Key Buccaneers stat: According to Chris Curtis of WEEI, Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has won eight consecutive games against Mike Pettine-coached defenses, with 15 touchdowns to three interceptions in those outings.
Key Packers stat: Green Bay's offense has committed one turnover in its last seven games (all wins).
The Pick: Green Bay -3.5.
Davenport: One game does not a season make, but in the divisional round, at least, the Packers looked like the best team in the NFL. The offense was lethally efficient on the ground and through the air. The defense won consistently at the point of attack and consistently pressured the quarterback. It was an impressive effort all the way around. The Buccaneers admittedly pasted the Packers 38-10 in Tampa in Week 6, but that's just more fuel for the fire for Aaron Rodgers, who is 78-19-1 at Lambeau Field with 218 touchdowns and just 37 interceptions for his regular-season career. Pack your bags, Green Bay—you're going to Tampa.
Packers 33, Buccaneers 20.
Gagnon: This is just a good matchup for the Bucs, who have the talent in the backfield to set the tone against a beatable running game and are playing well enough against the pass to limit Rodgers to an extent. The hook is also on Tampa Bay's side for a game that could very well come down to a field goal either way. I'll take that, even if I'm leaning toward the Packers straight-up because they're the better all-around team and their hot streak has come against much stiffer competition.
Packers 33, Buccaneers 30.
Sobleski : The Buccaneers are on a roll, but the Packers are the best team in football. The biggest difference between the two is that Green Bay's offensive front can control the Buccaneers' excellent front seven. Even without David Bakhtiari, the Packers continue to dominate in the trenches.
Packers 28, Buccaneers 24.
Consensus ATS pick: Green Bay -3.5.
Consensus score prediction: Packers 30, Buccaneers 24.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (15-3) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
When : Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET.
Where : Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
TV : CBS.
Referee : Bill Vinovich.
Bills injuries to watch: Defensive lineman Vernon Butler (quadricep) and wide receiver Gabriel Davis (ankle) are the only Bills out of practice, although receivers Cole Beasley (knee) and Stefon Diggs (oblique) have been limited. Those two have both been dealing with those injuries for a while, though, and they both played last weekend.
Chiefs injuries to watch: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been in concussion protocol and is also hampered by a toe injury, but he's at least been able to practice in limited fashion. Running back Le'Veon Bell (knee) and linebacker Willie Gay (ankle) both missed practice Thursday, while receiver Sammy Watkins (calf), running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip), cornerback Bashaud Breeland (concussion, shoulder) and corner Rashad Fenton (foot) remain limited. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) looks as though he'll remain out.
Key stat: The Chiefs and Bills met on a weird weekday afternoon in Week 6. Buffalo's only loss since then came on a Hail Mary, and Kansas City's only loss since then came when Andy Reid sat most of his key players in Week 17.
Key Bills stat: During the Bills' eight-game winning streak, they've won by an average of 17 points per game.
Keys Chiefs stat: The Chiefs have failed to outscore an opponent by more than six points in nine consecutive games.
The Pick: Kansas City -3.
Davenport: Sunday's AFC title tilt could be the first big chapter in the next great rivalry under center—two MVP candidates at the helm of red-hot teams that were the conference's top two offenses battling with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. This is old hat for the Chiefs, who are playing at home in the conference championship game for the third straight year. But the Chiefs also have a banged-up quarterback and haven't won a game by more than six points since November 1. This game should be a nail-biter and could easily be shootout-city, but a big play by the Bills defense late is going to help engineer an upset, delay Kansas City's dynasty status at least one more year and send Bills Mafia into a frenzy of table-dives.
Bills 34, Chiefs 33.
Gagnon: This will be a close game, especially with the Chiefs dealing with a lot of injuries and the Bills relatively healthy. Kansas City also has less of a home-field advantage as usual with a limited capacity at Arrowhead, and it hasn't been able to pull away from anybody lately. Still, I don't think the Bills have the backfield talent to take advantage of K.C.'s problems in run defense, and I'm not betting against Andy Reid at this point. There's a good chance this will be a three-point Chiefs victory, so I'll take my predicted winner with that line. Buy half a point to get to -2.5 if you can!
Chiefs 24, Bills 20.
Sobleski : A hobbled Patrick Mahomes—speaking of his foot injury and not the concussion protocol—certainly doesn't help matters. However, the matchup problems Kansas City's offensive weapons create across the board are undeniable. The Bills have an explosive offense in their own right, but it's not quite to KC's level.
Chiefs 31, Bills 27.
Consensus ATS pick: Kansas City -3.
Consensus score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 26.
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