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п»ї2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers bet strategy for Saturday's race.
A field of 12 horses will try to take a step towards the 2021 Kentucky Derby when the starting gate opens on Saturday in the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Dale Romans-trained Smiley Sobotka is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Sam F. Davis odds. Post time is 5:02 p.m. ET.
Before you make any 2021 Sam F. Davis picks, you NEED to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say.
Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day .
Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas ! And on Sunday he hit the late Pick 4 at Sam Houston Race Park.
Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. In June, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Last Sunday, he nailed the late Pick 4 at Sam Houston Race Park . Anyone who has followed Weir is way up.
Now, he has handicapped the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes field, made his picks and constructed his bets.
One shocker: Weir is almost completely fading Smiley Sobotka, even though he's the top favorite at 3-1 .
Instead, Weir's top pick is a horse who "has every right to improve as a three-year-old." He also is high on another double-digit long shot who can spice up your payday . Weir is including these horses in his exactas, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY need to see which horses they are before locking in any picks!
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Kentucky Derby 2020 odds, horses, and complete betting guide.
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An inside look at how the 146th Kentucky Derby will shape up:
Max Player (15-1)
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen.
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Current Form: Ran home 3rd in the Belmont Stakes then 3rd again in the Travers, both won by Tiz The Law. Won the Withers 3 races back.
Worth a wager?: Max has proven to be a Player in this year’s triple crown. Runs for new trainer Steve Asmussen and new rider Ricardo Santana. Putting him 5th.
Enforceable (23-1)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse.
Jockey: Adam Beschizza.
Current Form: Was a wide 5th in the Louisiana Derby then a wider 4th in the Blue Grass. Won the shorter grade 3 Lacomte back in January.
Worth a wager?: Casse trained gray finishes with good energy and may benefit stretching out. How many can he run down? A few. Midpack 10th.
Storm the Court (22-1)
Trainer: Peter Eurton.
Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux.
Current Form: The 2019 Breeders Cup Juvenile champ is 0 for 5 in his three-year-old campaign. Ran 3rd as favorite in the Ohio Derby in his last dirt start.
Worth a wager?: Lack of success for the BC winner led to a start on the lawn where he ran a promising 2nd. May see him on the turf this fall. 14th today.
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Major Fed (28-1)
Trainer: Gregory D. Foley.
Jockey: James Graham.
Current Form: Racing form read “in tight..wide..brushed” but he still managed to finish well to place 2nd in the Indiana Derby. Respectable 4th in the Louisiana.
Worth a wager?: Not sure the odds would be much different if he won at Indiana. Working well at Churchill Downs. Not sure if that matters either. 13th.
Money Moves (14-1)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher.
Jockey: Javier Castellano.
Current Form: He’s 2 for 3 but is the only horse in the field who has never mingled with stakes company. Got beat a neck at Spa stretching to 9 furlongs.
Worth a wager?: Pletcher makes him Run for the Roses after he pulled down a fat fig in defeat. Moves early; retreats late. 9th.
South Bend (36-1)
Trainer: William I. Mott.
Jockey: Gaffalione.
Current Form: Ran 4th at 32-1, well back of Tiz The Law in the Travers. Close 2nd in the Ohio Derby two races back. Has two wins at Churchill Downs.
Worth a wager?: Conditioned by Mott who won last year’s Derby via DQ. 0 for 8 this year but has one speed and may pass tired rivals as he did in the Travers. Putting him 7th.
Mr. Big News (43-1)
Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun.
Jockey: Gabriel Saez.
Current Form: Won a 200k at 46-1 over a sloppy surface at Oaklawn. Followed that shocker with a less shocking 6th in the Blue Grass.
Worth a wager?: Had a couple of excuses at Keeneland (stumbling start, traffic) which may have contributed to his invisible showing. An uneventful 11th.
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Thousand Words (9-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffret.
Jockey: Florent Geroux.
Current Form: Baffert’s colt was a gutsy, game, wire to wire winner in a 100k at Del Mar. Held off heavily favored Honor A.P., earning a triple digit fig.
Worth a wager?: If the Derby was run in May he wouldn’t be here. Lost to Mr Big News in the mud in April. Peakin at the right time. Speed carries him to 4th place finish.
Necker Island (41-1)
Trainer: Chris A. Hartman.
Jockey: Miguel Mena.
Current Form: Took home 3rd money in both the Indiana and Ellis Park Derbys. Another longshot who has a pair of victories at Churchill Downs.
Worth a wager?: Nothing special. Shows up every time he runs but who has he faced? Upgrade in competition leaves him 16th.
Sole Volante (21-1)
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone.
Jockey: Luca Panici.
Current Form: Campaign started well. Won the Sam F. Davis, then a strong 2nd to King Guillermo in the Tampa Derby. But he never showed up in the Belmont.
Worth a wager?: If the Derby was run in May he would have been a contender. Switch hitter is 2 for 2 on turf and that’s where you may see him next start. 8th.
Sole Volante AP Photo.
Attachment Rate (47-1)
Trainer: Dale L. Romans.
Jockey: Joseph Talamo.
Current Form: Was 2nd best in the Ellis Park, about 5 lengths better than Necker Island, which isn’t saying much. Non-threatening 5th in the Blue Grass.
Worth a wager?: Can’t believe trainer Dale Romans entered the Virginia bred thinking he could win off his recent history. A share? Don’t get attached. 12th.
Winning Impression (42-1)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart.
Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.
Current Form: Is a not so impressive 1 for 9 after running to his odds of 71-1 in the Ellis Park.
Worth a wager?: Getting the impression that he has the wrong name. Runs well in the slop…but the forecast calls for sunny skies. Last of 17.
see also.
Tiz the Law staying close to home for Kentucky Derby prep race.
NY Traffic (17-1)
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph. Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez.
Current Form: Sat off Authentic in the Haskell and surged in the final 1/16th only to miss by a nose. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby and Matt Winn as well.
Worth a wager?: Close, closer, then a photo short in his last 3 starts. Attractive morning line but believe he takes a step back here. A retreating 6th.
Honor AP (8-1)
Trainer: John A. Shirreffs.
Jockey: Mike E. Smith.
Current Form: Santa Anita Derby winner was upset by Thousand Words at Del Mar next out. He’s a career 2 for 5, never worse than 2nd.
Worth a wager?: Of course. Even though his connections were stunned by his loss to “1,000 Words,” a race thought to be a final tune-up. Placing top contender 3rd.
Tiz the Law (1-1)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg.
Jockey: Manuel Franco.
Current Form: Awesome! Belmont Stakes champ has won all 4 starts this year. Used quick burst to draw away in the Travers, contested at this distance.
Worth a wager?: Drawings comparisons to American Pharoah. Has another gear that this crop of three-year-olds can’t seem to match. Working like a champ in the a.m. That said we will try to beat him at this unbettable price. 2nd best.
Authentic (9-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Jockey: John R. Velazquez.
Current Form: Desperately held off NY Traffic to take the Haskell. Career 4 for 5, loss was to Honor AP after racing wide in the Santa Anita Derby.
Worth a wager?: Got away with a :47.2 half mile in the Haskell. Will have to have a higher cruising speed on Derby day. Can Baffert’s best chance get the distance? John Velazquez will be the 1st to know. Winner.
2021 Kentucky Derby futures pool 2: odds, predictions and betting offers.
Our horseracing expert looks at future odds for five intriguing plays at the 147th Kentucky Derby, scheduled to be run in Louisville on May 1.
The second of five Derby Future Wager pools will be conducted this weekend. Win and exacta bets will be accepted on thoroughbred racing’s premier event, which takes place at Churchill Downs.
Last year’s Derby was moved to September due to the coronavirus pandemic but this year’s running is expected to occur at its usual spot in the calendar – the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby future odds.
Horse Odds Bezos 20/1 Caddo River 30/1 Capo Kane 30/1 Concert Tour 15/1 Essential Quality 8/1 Fire At Will 30/1 Greatest Honour 50/1 Highly Motivated 20/1 Hot Rod Charlie 30/1 Jackie’s Warrior 20/1 Keepmeinmind 20/1 Life Is Good 6/1 Mandaloun 20/1 Medina Spirit 12/1 Midnight Bourbon 30/1 Mutasaabeq 30/1 Olympiad 50/1 Prate 30/1 Prime Factor 30/1 Proxy 50/1 Senor Buscador 20/1 Spielberg 30/1 Wipe the Slate 50/1 All Other 3-Year-Olds 9/5.
Betting on the Kentucky Derby Futures? Check out this brilliant offer from TwinSpires.
Kentucky Derby predictions.
Check out our expert predictions and futures picks below.
Life Is Good (6-1)
Pros: Life Is Good emerged as the top choice among individual betting interests at 5.4-1 odds in Pool 1 in late November. Life Is Good enhanced his resume with a front-running score in the Sham Stakes earlier this month. He’s got the Hall of Fame dynamic duo of trainer Bob Baffert and rider Mike Smith in his corner and has been considered a potential star even before he broke his maiden. Has drawn comparisons to Baffert’s Derby winner last year, Authentic.
Cons: Life Is Good saw his lead shrink during the stretch drive of the Sham, as stablemate Medina Spirit made up three lengths and lost by less than a length. Life Is Good must prove he can carry his speed the Derby distance of 1 Вј miles.
Our pick: The risk-reward factor screams that 6-1 or less isn’t a good bet 3 ½ months before the race.
Medina Spirit (12-1)
Pros: If Medina Spirit was able to rally and challenge current favorite Life Is Good in his first try around two turns, it stands to reason he’ll benefit from added distance. Medina Spirit’s sire, Protonico, loved Churchill Downs. Protonico finished second in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap and won the Alysheba Stakes over the surface.
Cons: Baffert’s best young horses are usually highly-regarded around the track but Medina Spirit wasn’t even favored in his winning debut. After making his stablemate sweat in the Sham, the talk was more of Life Is Good’s greenness rather than Medina Spirit’s talent.
Our pick: In a word: Enticing. As far as back as 1998 (Real Quiet), horses down on Baffert’s depth chart wound up winning big races.
Essential Quality 8-1.
Pros: Winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Essential Quality began working out in late December after a brief freshening. Essential Quality has won twice around two turns and, unlike some of the other top contenders, has proven he can rally from well off the pace. Trainer Brad Cox won four Breeders Cup races in November and seems poised to start making a bigger mark on the 3-year classics.
Cons: Just how good was the Juveline if a 94-1 shot finished second and a 30-1 shot finished third? Only two horses since the inaugural running of the Juvenile in 1984 have gone on to win the Derby – Street Sense (2006) and Nyquist (2015).
Our pick: Essential Quality closed at 8.2-1 in Pool 1. The odds won’t be any better in Pool 2. Best to see his 3-year-old debut before taking a plunge.
Concert Tour 15-1.
Pros: Guess who trains this horse? Another potential star in the Baffert barn, Concert Tour just broke his maiden last week in a sprint at Santa Anita. With Street Sense as his sire out of a Tapit mare, Concert Tour is bred to get better the longer he runs. Joel Rosario rode him in his debut and presumably will remain his jockey.
Cons: A sprint debut winner from any other barn wouldn’t even be on the list at this point. Concert Tour has to prove himself going two turns, let alone 1 ¼ miles.
Our pick: If Concert Tour wins a stakes race in February or March, his Future Wager odds will drop dramatically. At 15-1, Concert Tour is worth the leap of faith.
Midnight Bourbon: 30-1.
Pros: Trained by another Hall of Famer, Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans last week in his 3-year-old debut.
The wire-to-wire victory was a sharp improvement over his last 2-year-old race, a 14-length loss in New York’s Champagne Stakes. After the Lecomte, Asmussen said Midnight Bourbon should develop into an “excellent” 3-year-old.
Cons: Front-running scores are nice but he needs to show he can be just as effective off the pace, especially with so many speedy Baffert horses on the horizon. Midnight Bourbon was able to set comfortable fractions in the Fair Grounds outing.
Our pick: Asmussen still doesn’t have a Derby on his resume. Perhaps Midnight Bourbon can end that streak and at 30-1 is worth a flyer.
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