05-10-2021, 02:42 PM
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NFL football pool, pick'em, office pool, confidence picks for Week 5, 2020: Back the 49ers.
SportsLine's advanced computer model locked in the top NFL office pool picks for Week 5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a perfect 4-0 start, and those that have been riding the defending Super Bowl champions near the top of their NFL confidence pool picks have excelled. With Cam Newton out in Week 4, the Chiefs cruised to a 26-10 victory over the Patriots and have now beaten three playoff teams from last season by double-digits. In Week 5, the Chiefs will take on the Raiders in a crucial AFC West matchup in which they could open up a three-game lead in the division with a lead.
Kansas City is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Week 5 NFL odds from William Hill. After two dominant wins over the Raiders a year ago, the Chiefs could be among the most popular NFL office pool picks this weekend. But what other teams should you back with confidence with your Week 5 NFL picks, and which NFL underdogs should you target? Before you make your NFL picks, you need to see the Week 5 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. It's off to a hot 44-18 start to the 2020 season, and anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 5, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them.
Top Week 5 NFL office pool predictions.
One of the top Week 5 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: San Francisco gets a comfortable win at home against Miami. No team in the NFL has been as decimated by injuries like the defending NFC champions, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and running back Raheem Mostert (knee) will likely return to the lineup.
With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle making their returns in a Week 4 loss to the Eagles, the 49ers have much more firepower. That's good news against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and has given up 1,000 yards through the air the last three weeks.
The model predicts that Garoppolo completes over 70 percent of his passes and that San Francisco's rushing attack produces close to 150 yards on the ground. That's why the model predicts that the 49ers win outright in over 70 percent of simulations with an average final score of 30-20.
How to make Week 5 NFL office pool picks.
The model also made the call on every other Week 5 game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Colts vs. Browns and Falcons vs. Panthers. It's also calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 5: Seahawks stop Vikings; Bills, Browns stay hot.
Week 5 of the NFL season is all about not looking ahead.
The Bills meet the Titans in a battle of unbeaten teams, and Buffalo has a chance to improve to 5-0 before a "Thursday Night Football" game against the Chiefs. Don't look ahead .
The Steelers are back in action against the Eagles, and they can improve to 4-0 before a matchup against the Browns in Week 6. Don't look ahead .
The Seahawks can become the only 5-0 team in the NFC against the Vikings on "Sunday Night Football" before a two-game stretch against division opponents in the Cardinals and 49ers. Don't look ahead .
We're looking forward to Week 5, which starts with Tom Brady on "Thursday Night Football" at Soldier Field.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season. As always, our point spreads are courtesy of Sports Insider.
NFL predictions for Week 5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network, Fox.
We get a much better "Thursday Night Football" matchup in Week 5. Tom Brady has eight TDs and two interceptions the last two weeks, and he'll face a challenge against a Bears defense that has limited quarterbacks to a 74.4 quarterback rating so far. Does Chicago have enough offense in this one?
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Bears 23.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Panthers are on a two-game winning streak, and they have a chance to break a five-game losing streak to the Falcons. Carolina has not won at Atlanta since 2015. The fourth quarter should be high entertainment, but streaks are meant to be broken.
Pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 27.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Raiders have a high-scoring offense, too, but the Chiefs won last year's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium 40-9. Kansas City presents too many problems for a Las Vegas defense that has just four sacks in four games.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 22.
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New York Jets.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games, but a trip to New York should get Kyler Murray pointed back in the right direction. The Jets rank 31st in the NFL in scoring offense, and Sam Darnold is questionable for the game with a shoulder injury. Is it Joe Flacco time?
Pick: Cardinals 28, Jets 20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Steelers and Eagles meet in a Keystone State rivalry, and it's going to come down to which team can protect the quarterback better. The teams have combined for 32 sacks this season. Pittsburgh takes advantage of the unplanned bye week — and the Eagles' turnover ratio — to improve to 4-0.
Pick: Steelers 27, Eagles 19.
Los Angeles Rams (-9) at Washington Football Team.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Rams sputtered in a 17-9 victory against the Giants, but it gets well against a Washington team that has lost by two TDs or more each of the last three weeks and has quarterback questions again.
Pick: Rams 30, Redskins 14.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Joe Burrow picked up his first victory as a starter in Week 4 and is looking to add to a streak of three straight 300-yard games. The other side is the issue for Cincinnati in this one. Lamar Jackson has a 71 percent completion and two 100-yard rushing games in three career starts against the Bengals.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 20.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Texans continue to spiral out of control, and a minus-5 turnover ratio isn't helping matters for Bill O'Brien. Jacksonville has given up 30-plus points in their last three losses, but they find a way to pull the upset on the road in a shootout.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Texans 27.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
We're tempted to take Miami in this one, especially with the rash of injuries in San Francisco. The 49ers, however, bounce back at home, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo returns from a high-ankle sprain. The 49ers win, but it's closer than expected.
Pick: 49ers 27, Dolphins 23.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Browns upset the Cowboys but are still not getting the respect from the oddsmakers. Some of that is because of Baker Mayfield's 2-11 record against winning teams as a starter, but the Browns keep that momentum moving in the right direction at home with another big victory.
Pick: Browns 28, Colts 24.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
This game normally fills the SNF window, but the miserable starts on both sides continue. The Cowboys have the third-best scoring offense and third-worst scoring defense. It won't matter against a New York team that won't be able to take advantage of the bad run defense enough.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Giants 23.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Seahawks continue to roll with MVP-candidate Russell Wilson. Minnesota can make it interesting if Kirk Cousins continues to work effectively with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but it won't matter on the road. Seattle is 4-0 against the spread this season.
Pick: Seahawks 36, Vikings 24.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-11)
Monday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Both teams have quarterback questions here. Will Drew Lock be back from injury? Will Cam Newton be cleared after testing positive for COVID-19? New England is the better team, and this game makes us long for the days of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning.
Pick: Patriots 28, Broncos 19.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints.
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN.
The Saints' last two prime-time experiences were not great, but the third time is the charm against a reeling Los Angeles team that might be without Austin Ekeler. Drew Brees and the Saints stay on track with a second straight victory.
Pick: Saints 30, Chargers 20.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Tennessee Titans.
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills have a chance to improve to 5-0, against a Titans team that has been affected by COVID-19. Forget about the "Music City Miracle" replays. The Bills improve to 5-0 heading into a Week 6 TNF showdown with the Chiefs. That's a big line on the road.
NFL Week 5 game picks: Browns top Colts; Steelers over Eagles.
Around The NFL Editor.
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Gregg Rosenthal went 9-6 on his predictions for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 38-24-1. How will he fare in Week 5? His picks are below.
UPDATE: The NFL announced Sunday it has postponed the Broncos-Patriots game that had previously been rescheduled from Sunday to Monday, following another player testing positive for COVID-19 during Saturday's round of testing. Both teams will be on a bye in Week 5.
Sunday, Oct. 11.
Los Angeles Rams 27, Washington Football Team 16.
I can't blame Washington coach Ron Rivera for making a quarterback change. Washington's offense, coordinated by Scott Turner, looks surprisingly competent outside of Dwayne Haskins' struggles, with open receivers aplenty and Antonio Gibson keying a solid running game. It's just hard to believe new starter Kyle Allen will be much better, based on his 2019 tape alongside Turner in Carolina. Rivera says he sees an opportunity to compete in a disastrous NFC East, with an upcoming six-game stretch against teams that currently have losing records. That doesn't start for another week, though.
The Rams' screen game has been stymied in back-to-back weeks, and coach Sean McVay's surprising turn to extreme run-heavy tendencies invites closer games, especially when matched against a solid WFT front. That could lead to a lower-scoring game than expected, but I won't believe in Kyle Allen magic until I see it.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Philadelphia Eagles 16.
Pittsburgh is the wrong matchup for a Philadelphia team working through issues on the offensive line. After Stephon Tuitt's standout game in Week 3, the Steelers have a better chance of seeing multiple defensive players win battles on a given down than any team in football. They also blitz as well as anyone. Philly's deep, healthy and talented defensive line could give similar issues to Ben Roethlisberger. Carson Wentz is leaning on his legs more in recent weeks, which gives the Eagles hope for a long-term turnaround, but this is not a favorable draw for them.
Arizona Cardinals 27, New York Jets 21.
The Jets were one of the worst offensive teams I've ever seen before losing their two best players, Sam Darnold and Mekhi Becton, to injury. Well, the Jets hope Darnold is one of their best players, at least. Joe Flacco will start this week, a lose-lose situation because of what any success by Flacco would say about the team's franchise quarterback. While Kliff Kingsbury has somehow made Kyler Murray boring with an overreliance on dinking and dunking, it would take cascading injuries or an organizational meltdown to lose to this Jets team.
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Las Vegas Raiders 20.
As if the Chiefs weren't enough to deal with already, their defense ranks fifth in efficiency and could get back previously suspended starting cornerback Bashaud Breeland and injured pass rusher Chris Jones. That should be plenty against a Raiders team too often willing to trade long field goal drives for touchdowns, especially in this divisional mismatch. Kansas City's passing attack isn't producing like normal (Patrick Mahomes ranks eighth in yards and 18th in YPA!), but Las Vegas' defense doesn't do a single thing well, tackling included. This is a get-right game for the Chiefs' offense, as if a 4-0 team needs to get right.
Houston Texans 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 27.
Firing Bill O'Brien was necessary, but it's not going to fix the mistakes in roster construction that current football chief Jack Easterby helped oversee. The defense remains slow, with poor coverage linebackers and without much of a pass rush. Any offense with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and a capable group of wideouts should be fine, especially against a Jacksonville defense that routinely allows opposing quarterbacks to have their best game of the season. If the Jaguars couldn't rush the passer against the Bengals, it may never happen. Better vibes won't make the Texans world beaters, but beating the Jags to make interim head coach Romeo Crennel 1-0 is manageable.
Baltimore Ravens 30, Cincinnati Bengals 21.
It's unfair to compare any offense to the 2019 Ravens -- even the 2020 Ravens. Still, it's disarming to see them ranked 11th in offensive efficiency after a quarter of the season. The O-line is not playing as well, their trademark long drives aren't happening and they aren't converting many first downs through the air. That's the bad news. The good news is that they remain very explosive and the schedule remains forgiving. Don't be surprised if smoking Joe Burrow moves the ball against a lagging Baltimore pass rush, but I'm not yet buying into Cincy's improved defensive numbers. Even a diminished Ravens offense is a very good one, although it's worth keeping an eye on Lamar Jackson's status after he missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury. ( UPDATE: Jackson missed practice again on Thursday, marking the first time in the quarterback's career that he has sat out back-to-back days.)
Carolina Panthers 27, Atlanta Falcons 24.
How much lower can Dan Quinn's team go? The injury report indicates Atlanta might get three key defensive starters back (Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Takk McKinley), but it seems foolish to play Julio Jones anytime soon. The Falcons need Matt Ryan to be special to overcome his surroundings. The 35-year-old QB has been ordinary. The Panthers' defense, meanwhile, has orchestrated a shockingly quick turnaround the last two weeks with rookies Yetur Gross-Matos and Derrick Brown making plays. If Matt Rhule goes into Atlanta and wins with Teddy Bridgewater on pace for 4,500-plus passing yards, Robby Anderson on pace for 1,500-plus receiving yards and Mike Davis capably replacing Christian McCaffrey, it's hard not to see the result as a pure reflection of coaching.
San Francisco 49ers 27, Miami Dolphins 20.
The cavalry is arriving for the 49ers. After the healthy returns of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jason Verrett in the last two weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert returned to practice on Wednesday. That bodes well against a Dolphins defense struggling to generate pressure or cover receivers. (Other than that, it's great!) The 49ers' cornerback group remains mostly missing, but it's hard to trust a Miami team to outscore opponents when Ryan Fitzpatrick is trying to mitigate two offensive tackles ranked in the bottom 10 of Pro Football Focus qualifiers. The Dolphins play just well enough each week to remind everyone that they are well-coached but talent-deficient.
Dallas Cowboys 31, New York Giants 24.
New York's offense hasn't topped 300 yards yet, with Daniel Jones increasingly indecisive even in the rare instances he's protected. If that continues against the collapsing Cowboys defense, Giants fans will experience a nostalgia for Pat Shurmur they didn't believe possible. The Giants' big defensive line makes them difficult to run against, so this is yet another matchup where it would behoove Dallas to pass early and often. New York cornerback James Bradberry is performing like an All-Pro, but the Giants don't have enough other players in the back end to match up. Dak Prescott is the anti-Jones right now, with quick decision-making and a surplus of options, including tight end Dalton Schultz and backup running back Tony Pollard. For once, Dak won't have to play from behind.
Cleveland Browns 26, Indianapolis Colts 24.
UPDATE: Coach Frank Reich announced Friday that Darius Leonard is ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
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