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п»їCollege football odds, picks, predictions for Week 10, 2020: Proven model backing Michigan, Arkansas.
Derek Mason Vanderbilt.
In what could wind up being a College Football Playoff elimination game, No. 1 Clemson will visit No. 4 Notre Dame on Saturday with the lead in the ACC standings hanging in the balance. The Tigers won't have junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence available because of a positive COVID-19 test two weeks ago. Freshman D.J. Uiagalelei will have his work cut out against Notre Dame's vaunted defense. However, the nation's top-ranked team is still listed as a five-point favorite in the Week 10 college football odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, Pac-12 play will begin with No. 12 Oregon hosting Stanford on Saturday night for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. With just a six-game season scheduled, Oregon will have to impress every step along the way and the Ducks are listed as eight-point favorites in Autzen Stadium in their Pac-12 opener. Before locking in any Week 10 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 31-19 on all top-rated picks through nine weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $600 in profit already. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 10 from William Hill and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 10 college football predictions.
One of the top Week 10 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 23 Michigan (-4) wins and covers at No. 13 Indiana in an important Big Ten matchup at noon ET on Saturday. The Wolverines blasted Minnesota 49-24 in their first game but fell 27-24 against rival Michigan State last week.
The model, however, sees great value in the Wolverines in a bounce-back spot against an Indiana squad that might be overvalued after its 2-0 start. The road team is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings between these squads. Michigan has also won 24 straight against the Hoosiers and has won by double-digits in the past two meetings.
SportsLine's model is calling for 250 passing yards and two touchdowns from Michigan quarterback Joe Milton as the Wolverines cover in almost 70 percent of simulations.
Coming out of a bye week, Tennessee has announced that it will stick with Jarrett Guarantano as the starting quarterback despite the fact that he's averaging just 4.6 yards per pass attempt in his last three starts. The Volunteers have turned the ball over eight times and have been outgained by 509 yards during that span to lose by an average of 27 points per game.
Arkansas has had some offensive issues of its own, but the defense has been opportunistic in spurts. The Razorbacks forced seven turnovers against Ole Miss and four turnovers against Mississippi State in victories and also played Auburn and Texas A&M extremely tough on the road. That's why the model has Arkansas covering in over 60 percent of simulations with the under 52.5 hitting in nearly 70 percent of projections.
How to make Week 10 college football picks.
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame as well as every other Week 10 FBS matchup, and it is also predicting a major upset in the Pac-12. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And which Pac-12 underdog will pull off a shocking upset? Check out the latest Week 10 college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,100 in profit over the past four-plus seasons, and find out.
College Football Week 10 Picks.
By Kyle Koster | Oct 29, 2019, 3:45 PM EDT.
Season records: Koster 50-37; Giuffra 43-35; Phillips 43-44; McKeone 44-43.
Oregon (-5.5) at USC.
Koster: Oregon has played two very physical games in a row and needed late heroics to pull out both. Kedon Slovis has grabbed the reins of the USC starting quarterback job and proved himself to be capable. Clay Helton has his guys playing with passion and they were able to beat the Pac-12's other best team, Utah, at home earlier this year. Will be a war. Oregon 29, USC 24.
McKeone : USC has looked pretty good these past couple of weeks, and home-field should allow them to cover, but Oregon's talent is too much to overcome. Oregon 31, USC 27.
Phillips: USC has been fantastic at home during Clay Helton's entire tenure. While I don't think the Trojans win this weekend, they will make this one close. A late field goal helps the Ducks stave off an upset. Oregon 34, USC 31.
Giuffra : USC is too hot and cold for my palate. Even though they are better at home, Oregon is rolling on offense right now. Oregon 38 , USC 30.
Michigan (-18.5) at Maryland.
Koster: Jim Harbaugh's team has looked damn good over the last six quarters. A powerful rushing attack embarrassed Notre Dame and the Terrapins are a revolving door on defense. Bad recipe. Michigan 45, Maryland 6.
McKeone: Coming off their biggest win of the season, Michigan should handle a tumbling Maryland team with ease. Michigan 38, Maryland 14.
Phillips: Michigan is coming off a huge victory over Notre Dame and riding high, that momentum will carry through this week. Michigan 42 , Maryland 21.
Giuffra : Since an early-season upset of a bad Syracuse team, Maryland has shown its true colors. How do you lose to Indiana and Temple in the same season? This isn't college basketball, people. Michigan 35, Maryland 10.
Georgia (-6) at Florida.
Koster: The Bulldogs have been sleepwalking against inferior competition. A festive outdoor party will be a smelling salt, but the offense will still struggle to put points up in bunches. Take the points and pray. Georgia 24, Florida 20.
McKeone: Neither of these teams have looked perfect of late, but I believe in Florida more than I believe in Georgia. Florida 27, Georgia 20.
Phillips: Georgia has played down to its competition lately and has an offense that is completely sputtering. For some reason I trust the Bulldogs to bounce back here. This is for first place in the SEC East so it should be a battle. Georgia 31 , Florida 24.
Giuffra : Florida's defense has looked legit while Georgia's offense has disappeared recently. This game is always a toss-up on a neutral field, but I'm giving Florida the edge based on it simply looking better built for this kind of game. Florida 27, Georgia 24.
Utah (-3.5) at Washington.
Koster: The Utes are such fun to watch. They suffocate teams and refuse to let them breathe. The Huskies are in for a torture chamber and another late heartbreak. Utah 14, Washington 10.
McKeone: Utah is rolling, but Washington put up a good fight against Oregon last week. This one will be close, but the Utes will prevail. Utah 34, Washington 33.
Phillips : Utah is playing as well as any team west of the Mississippi but it's tough playing at Washington, even though the Huskies are having a down year. I see this as a battle to the end. Utah 28, Washington 27.
Giuffra : Washington is a tough place to play and Utah has gotten used to the comfort of home, with three of its last four games there. But their defense (not offense) travels well and they'll hold Washington's erratic offense down enough to cover. Utah 30, Washington 18.
Koster: SMU hasn't let me down yet this year. This should be a fun time but I am so sick of hearing how either of these teams can hang with the Ohio States of the world. No offense. SMU 40, Memphis 38.
McKeone: SMU for the CFP! SMU 45, Memphis 42.
Phillips: Rolling with the Mustangs this week as Sonny Dykes has them playing some excellent football. SMU 45 , Memphis 42.
Giuffra : How can you not take six points when a team averages 43 points and 202 rushing yards per game? You can't. SMU 38 , Memphis 34.
Kansas State (-5.5) at Kansas.
Koster: The Wildcats scored arguably the most impressive win of the year by going on a 41-6 run against Oklahoma. The Jayhawks are notoriously unreliable. Throw out the records when these two teams play, but go with the proven entity, even if there's a fear of an emotional letdown. Kansas State 27 , Kansas 18.
McKeone: Kansas State gave us a big upset last week, but this time the Jayhawks will come out amped at home for the big rivalry game and pull off the upset. Kansas 35, Kansas State 30.
Phillips: Kansas State is coming off a huge emotional win, which usually signals a letdown. I'm not buying it, give me the Wildcats over the Jayhawks this week. Kansas State 28 , Kansas 21.
Giuffra : Doesn't Kansas suck at football? Oh, they've actually beaten a few teams this year? Don't care and neither does K-State. Kansas State 30 , Kansas 10.
Koster: Everyone is entitled to one bad game, right? Brian Kelly needs to burn that footage and move on. And I think they will. Notre Dame 55 , Virginia Tech 20.
McKeone: This will be a much-needed rebound week for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame 45, Virginia Tech 21.
Phillips: There's no way Notre Dame doesn't bounce back after that horrific loss at Michigan. The Irish looked like they were sleepwalking in that one and Brian Kelly won't allow that to happen again. Notre Dame 49 , Virginia Tech 17.
Giuffra: Notre Dame was exposed in sloppy conditions against Michigan. I don't expect that to continue in the comfort of home. Notre Dame 37 , Virginia Tech 10.
Koster: Remember when this was the sexiest game on the college football slate? Fun times. Extremely sad for whatever side loses. Florida State 35 , Miami 17.
McKeone: Florida State resembled a football team last week, but I can't bring myself to bet on them, even at home. Miami 21, Florida State 17.
Phillips: Is this the ultimate "who cares" game this season? Both teams stink but Florida State is at home and whipped Syracuse last week. Florida State 31 , Miami 24.
Giuffra : I'll keep saying it until it changes: Is Willie Taggart still the head coach at Florida State? Ok, cool. Miami 24, Florida State 20.
Koster: I've picked West Virginia like four times this year and lost them all. Dead to me. Baylor 44, West Virginia 21.
McKeone: This line feels a bit big for what's generally been an unimpressive Baylor team, but they'll take care of business, even if the Mountaineers cover. Baylor 38, West Virginia 27.
Phillips: Baylor needs to start having some respect attached to its name. Bears roll again this week against a shaky West Virginia team. Baylor 42 , West Virginia 21.
Giuffra : Gonna be honest, haven't seen West Virginia play this year. But I have seen Baylor, and they're back in terms of their offensive attack. Baylor 41, West Virginia 20.
Koster: Find me a more hilarious division than the Big Ten West. You can't. Indiana 23, Northwestern 14.
McKeone: This will be the B1G game to end all B1G games. Northwestern 13, Indiana 8.
Phillips: My alma mater just went on the road and somehow beat Nebraska, and could be staring a nine-win season in the face. These kinds of things are unheard of in Hoosier-land. This week Indiana faces a terrible Northwestern team at home. While I'd love to pick them to cover, that's a huge number and Indiana football can't have nice things. Indiana 31, Northwestern 24.
Giuffra : Northwestern and Rutgers are the worst teams in college football. Although it's a big line, give me the team with something to play for at home. Indiana 27, Northwestern 10.
College football picks, predictions against the spread for every Week 10 top 25 game.
November is here, and the College Football Playoff race heats up with two top-10 showdowns in Week 10.
No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida meet at 3:30 p.m. ET in a SEC East showdown that will likely determine who represents the division in the SEC championship game. No. 1 Clemson won't have Trevor Lawrence for a 7:30 p.m. showdown at No. 4 Notre Dame, which is the biggest leg in the ACC championship race.
There are two more games between ranked teams on the schedule. No. 9 BYU visits No. 21 Boise State at 9:45 p.m. Friday, and No. 23 Michigan faces No. 13 Indiana on the road at noon Saturday.
It's the first full Saturday of the 2020 college football season knowing that the Pac-12 is back in action. We're looking for a third straight week with a winning record against the spread.
Here's a look at our full-season results:
Last week: 15-4 S/U, 11-8 ATS Overall: 90-29 S/U, 58-54 ATS Top 25: 80-24 S/U, 53-50 ATS.
Now, a look at our picks against the spread for Week 10:
Week 10 picks against the spread.
Thursday, Nov. 5.
No. 18 SMU (-13.5) at Temple.
The Mustangs are 3-1 ATS when favored by double digits this season, and Temple has struggled through another stop and start season. Look for the Mustangs to perform better on the road than they did against Tulane on Oct. 16.
Pick: SMU wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread.
Friday, Nov. 6.
Miami (-9.5) at N.C. State.
The line ticked up from its open and could stretch into the double digits. Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and the Wolfpack are at home. N.C. State has to be better against the run than it was in a blowout loss to North Carolina in order to give backup quarterback Bailey Hockman a chance. We'll take the home dog and the points.
Pick: Miami wins 27-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 9 BYU (-3) at No. 21 Boise State.
The Broncos opened as a three-point favorite, but the line has shifted in the other direction. Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier did not travel with the team last week, and backup quarterback Jack Sears tossed three TDs in his place. BYU, meanwhile, has a Heisman Trophy contender in Zach Wilson. This is the first real test for the Cougars. BYU won 28-25 in this matchup last year.
Pick: BYU wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 7.
No. 23 Michigan (-3) at No. 13 Indiana.
The Hoosiers have not beat the Wolverines since 1987, but this might be the chance to do it. Two of the past three meetings in Bloomington have been one-score games, and Michael Penix Jr.'s will test Michigan's corners. The Wolverines, however, will build enough around the running game to get out with a victory.
Pick: Michigan wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
Arizona State at No. 20 USC (-11.5)
It's the Pac-12 opener for both teams and an excellent quarterback battle between Jayden Daniels and Kedon Slovis. The early start adds to the intrigue. The teams have split the past two meetings by a combined total of eight points.
Pick: USC wins 34-28 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
West Virginia at No. 22 Texas (-7.5)
The Longhorns and Mountaineers are still alive in the hunt for a Big 12 championship berth. These teams have played shootouts the past two years, and this won't be an exception. Texas is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
Pick: Texas wins 35-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 25 Liberty at Virginia Tech (-14.5)
The Flames are the ranked team, but they are huge underdogs against the Hokies. Liberty is scoring 38 points per game, so even if the Hokies turn this into a shootout we think the Flames can keep it within that big number.
Pick: Virginia Tech wins 37-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
UMass at No. 16 Marshall (-44.5)
The Minutemen have a three-game schedule, and they lost 41-0 to Georgia Southern three weeks ago. Marshall is not any easier, but that is simply too many points to be laying in any game.
Pick: Marshall wins 48-6 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 5 Georgia (-5) vs. No. 8 Florida.
This is Florida's chance to shake up the SEC East order, and Kyle Trask has passed for at least four TDs in all the Gators' game this season. Trask played in last year's game, too. All that said, we have concerns about Florida's defense against Georgia's methodical style.
Pick: Georgia wins 33-26 and COVERS the spread.
Houston at No. 6 Cincinnati (-11)
The Bearcats are 3-2 against the spread, but they have covered in impressive fashion the past two weeks. Cincinnati is starting to get some Playoff consideration. Three different Bearcats have at least 200 yards rushing this season in Desmond Ridder, Gerrid Doaks and Jerome Ford. U-C keeps rolling.
Pick: Cincinnati wins 38-24 and COVERS the spread.
Kansas at No. 19 Oklahoma (-37)
Oklahoma has settled down around quarterback Spencer Rattler, and the Jayhawks have given up 50-plus points each of the past two weeks. It's a matter of whether Kansas can produce enough offense for a back-door cover.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 56-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 14 Oklahoma State (-10) at Kansas State.
The Wildcats and Cowboys both flopped last week, but Oklahoma State remains a double-digit favorite on the road. Three of the past five meetings have been one-score games, however, and we expect this game to follow that trend.
Pick: Oklahoma State wins 31-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 7 Texas A&M (-8.5) at South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are inconsistent, but they have split two close home games with Tennessee and Auburn. Texas A&M is 6-0 all time against the Gamecocks, but the past two in Columbia have been close.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 28-26 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Baylor at No. 17 Iowa State (-13)
The Bears are struggling to generate enough offense, but their three losses are by an average of nine points per game. The Cyclones remain in the Big 12 championship picture, and they are 2-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
Pick: Iowa State wins 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 1 Clemson (-5.5) at No. 4 Notre Dame.
The Tigers will try to upend Notre Dame with backup quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. On the other side, it's a chance for Ian Book to earn a signature victory on an under-appreciated career. Look for Clemson's defense to be the key in the second half. It's the Tigers' first single-digit spread of the season.
Pick: Clemson wins 31-22 and COVERS the spread.
Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (-37)
Former Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano knows the Buckeyes' personnel well, and Rutgers has improved on both sides of the ball. Ohio State's average margin of victory in six previous meetings is 46.5 points per game.
Pick: Ohio State wins 45-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Stanford at No. 12 Oregon (-11.5)
Oregon broke a three-game losing streak to the Cardinal last season, and the Ducks are projected to be a Playoff contender in the Pac-12. It's going to take a few weeks for Joe Moorhead's offense to develop, but the defense won't have that problem.
Pick: Oregon wins 33-17 and COVERS the spread.
South Alabama at No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-15.5)
The Chanticleers are emerging as one of the darlings of the 2020 football season, and they are 5-1 ATS this season. This is their first double-digit line as a favorite, and the Jaguars are 2-2 ATS as an underdog. We're going to stick with the hot teams.
Pick: Coastal Carolina wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread.
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