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Cleveland Browns (12-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Date: Sunday, January 17th, 2021.
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST.
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO.
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds.
Total: Over 57 (-110) | Under 57 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook . Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk free for up to $1,000!
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs News and Notes.
Browns.
T Jack Conklin (hamstring/knee) – QUESTIONABLE.
LB B.J. Goodson (shoulder) – QUESTIONABLE.
TE David Njoku (hamstring) – QUESTIONABLE.
TE Stephen Carlson (groin) – QUESTIONABLE.
Conklin and Goodson are the names to keep an eye on here. They are regular starters and contribute a fair amount to their positions as their availability will be key on both sides of the ball in the contest. Keep an eye on their statuses as kickoff approaches.
Chiefs.
CB Rashad Fenton (foot/ankle) – QUESTIONABLE.
LB Willie Gay (ankle) – OUT.
WR Sammy Watkins (calf) – OUT.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle/hip) – QUESTIONABLE.
TE Deon Yelder (groin) – QUESTIONABLE.
Both Fenton and Gay’s presence would be helpful for the defense as regular contributors, but all eyes will be on the status of Edwards-Helaire for Sunday. The starting running back will try to play through an ankle and hip injury, but Le’Veon Bell will take the load for the weekend’s matchup if unable to do so. The status of Watkins is another one to keep an eye on as a rotational receiving option for Mahomes in the passing game with 37 receptions on the season.
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions and Picks.
The line currently favors the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs as they are steep 10-point favorites at a -104 price. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to sling it as they usually do as the team who ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt in the NFL with 7.7. The Browns have patented a strong ground and pound offensive attack as the tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield create the production. Cleveland will look to continue their rush dominance as they are seventh in the NFL in yards per rush attempt on the season with 4.8.
The total sits at 57 with no juice to either side and is quite high as it sits nearly nine points higher than the league average. Surprisingly, in games with totals in the 50s, the Browns are 4-1 to the over. When the Browns cover as we expect them to do, the over is 5-2.
Both offenses have found success this season and boast average defenses at best. The Kansas City offense sits second on the season in yards per play, just behind the Texans at 6.3, while Cleveland is at 11 th with 5.8 yards per play. With two offenses that are meeting at a time that they are both operating at a high clip, don’t let the number scare you off and take the over in this spot.
Player Props.
Nick Chubb found a great balance of success against the Steelers in the wild card round as he combined for 145 yards in their victory last weekend. Expect more of the same from Chubb against a Kansas City defense that ranks 18 th in yards per rush attempt and 17 th in yards per pass attempt. He has been a key in getting the Browns this far in the season and will be looked towards by both head coach Kevin Stefanski and quarterback Baker Mayfield as an engine to the offense and a key to victory. Take the over on Chubb’s 87.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Super Bowl LV Picks: Chiefs-Buccaneers Odds, Analysis And Predictions.
It doesn't get much better than Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady.
If the last year has taught us a lesson, it’s to not take anything for granted. That said, to have the Super Bowl mere days away is something sports fans should cherish.
There were times in the spring when some wondered whether the NFL should even hold its draft — virtually, mind you — amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversations about the feasibility of an actual season followed, and on more than one occasion, the 2020 campaign felt like a pigskin house of cards ready to topple with one or two more positive tests.
Yet, here we are. Somehow, the NFL has been able to push through the pandemic and will play Super Bowl LV as scheduled Sunday night when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Raymond James Stadium.
Will the Bucs become the first team not only to host the Super Bowl but hoist the Lombardi Trophy in their own stadium? Or will Patrick Mahomes rip the torch out of Tom Brady’s hands and declare the NFL his own with a second straight title?
Super Bowl LV Chiefs Vs. Bucs Picks, Odds, Betting Props | The Spread, Ep. 21.
Here’s how they fared during championship week and the season thus far.
Mike Cole: 1-1 (121-137-10) Ricky Doyle: 0-2 (129-129-10) Andre Khatchaturian: 2-0 (123-135-10)
Now, here are their Super Bowl LV picks, with the line via consensus data.
(-3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6:30 p.m. ET, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.
Mike: Bucs The Sharp Football site did a very interesting look at how DVOA rankings play out in the Super Bowl. A couple of the bigger takeaways included “top-five ranked offenses have a 2-5 record when facing a top-five defense,” and the team with the higher-ranked defense has won the previous two matchups of teams with top-five offenses. That’s a long, admittedly complicated way of saying defense does matter in the Super Bowl, and Tampa Bay (DVOA No. 5) has a much better defense than Kansas City (No. 22).
The Bucs have been the best team in the NFL over their seven-game winning streak, in large part because of that defense. Tampa Bay’s pass rush is disruptive, as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers can attest. Now, they go up against an offensive line that could be without Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher.
Tampa feasted on Green Bay’s offensive line without top tackle David Bakhtiari, and this feels like a similar situation. Sustained pressure up front should help the Bucs limit the Chiefs’ big-play potential, which is what doomed them in these teams’ Week 12 matchup. Eventually, they got that fixed, and the Bucs made a game of that one. As long as they don’t make similar mistakes this Sunday, they’ll be in position to win this game late. And if that’s the case, are you really willing to bet against Brady?
Super Bowl LV Odds: Why You Should Bet Over In Buccaneers-Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs Trying to avoid analysis paralysis. The Chiefs have won 25 of their last 27 games dating back to Week 11 of the 2019 season. Sure, they’ve gone just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games, but the bulk of those contests featured inflated spreads and were of little consequence. Kansas City, which is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games when favored by three points or fewer, has played its best football when the stakes are raised. And I just can’t pass on the opportunity to back Mahomes, the best quarterback on the planet, with such a short number.
The Bucs’ defense definitely will be better prepared than it was in Week 12 — a low bar to clear, obviously — and having cornerback Jamel Dean healthy this time around will be critical in Tampa Bay’s effort to slow Tyreek Hill, in particular. But there are questions on the back end — safeties Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead are dealing with injuries — and that’s concerning when facing Kansas City’s high-powered offense, which ranked third in explosive pass rate and basically operates on its own speed setting.
There also could be opportunities for Kansas City to lean on its running backs in the passing game if Tampa Bay devotes too much attention to slowing Hill and Travis Kelce. The Bucs allowed the most receptions (101) to running backs during the regular season, and Tampa Bay’s linebackers are exploitable in coverage, for as daunting as they are in terms of rushing the passer. Expect some offensive ingenuity from KC.
And don’t sleep on Kansas City’s defense. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (the Giants’ DC when New York upset the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII) know a thing or two about Mr. Brady.
Super Bowl LV Odds: Why You Should Bet Under In Chiefs-Buccaneers.
Andre: Bucs Not enough is being made of Fisher’s absence. In 2019, the star left tackle missed eight games and the Chiefs went 4-4. When he did play, the Chiefs were undefeated. Schwartz also is out for Kansas City, whose decimated offensive line has to go up against Tampa Bay’s ferocious pass rush, which finished second in QB hits this season. This isn’t good news for Mahomes, who was walking with a limp in the AFC Championship Game.
Mahomes can’t expect to get much help from his running attack because of the Bucs’ elite rush defense, which allowed the fewest yards per carry this season. All of this might make it difficult for the Chiefs to keep up with the Bucs, who get to wake up in their own beds in a de facto home game.
Tampa Bay’s running attack should take advantage of Kansas City’s porous rush defense, which had the second-worst expected points contributed on Pro-Football Reference. The Chiefs also allowed the most receiving yards to running backs, so expect Brady to employ short passes to his backs. Success on short passes could create unpredictability on deep passes. Brady threw more deep passes than any QB this season and led the NFL in deep-pass touchdowns with 14.
Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images.
Chiefs vs. Bills Sharp Pick: How Pros Are Betting the Monday Night Football Total.
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Odds.
Data as of Monday at 8 a.m. ET.
Sign up for a FREE Trial of our NFL PRO Report , which highlights key factors that provide betting edges — like sharp action, large wagers, historically-profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks.
Due to schedule reshuffling, the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Week 6 matchup, which was originally set for Thursday, will kick off today at 5 p.m. ET.
Despite sporting identical 4-1 records, Kansas City is a 5.5-point road favorite (click here for live NFL odds) against Buffalo, showing the market clearly views the Chiefs as the superior team.
There is no clear consensus on how the pros are betting the Chiefs vs. Bills spread. However, the total is another story.
Using our NFL PRO Report, let’s detail how sharps are quietly playing this over/under.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Pick.
Sharp Action.
As recently as early Monday morning, the Chiefs vs. Bills over/under sat at 57.5 at BetMGM. But according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, wiseguys steamed the under, pushing this number down to 55.5.
Big Money.
While not the largest bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy, the under is also garnering 52% of the money on 44% of the tickets, showing that the biggest bets are banking on a lower-scoring game.
PRO Report Angle: Under 55.5.
Super Bowl Odds 2021: Props List and Betting Guide for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers.
Think you know what's going to happen in Super Bowl LV? Then you may want to consider placing some bets on Sunday's Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
There are plenty of bets to consider ahead of every Super Bowl. While you can wager on who you think is going to win the game, there are also a lot of prop bets related to player stats, touchdown scorers, yardage totals and plenty more.
This year's matchup has a bunch of stars on both sides. And it's possible that it will be an exciting, back-and-forth game with substantial offense from each team, as the Chiefs and Bucs each have talented playmakers who have gotten them to this point.
Here's a look at everything you need to know heading into Super Bowl LV, including the latest betting information.
Super Bowl LV Information.
Date: Sunday, Feb. 7.
Start Time: 6:30 p.m. ET.
TV: CBS.
Betting Information.
Spread: Kansas City (-3.5)
Over/Under: 56 points.
Prop Bets Guide.
Will the coin toss result in heads or tails? Which Gatorade color will be dumped on the winning head coach after the game? And will there be any offensive or defensive linemen who somehow find their way into the end zone for a touchdown?
These are some of the prop bets that are available on DraftKings for bettors to consider. Some of these require more luck than others, especially ones such as the coin toss and Gatorade color. But there are others that could be a bit easier for diehard football fans to predict.
One Super Bowl prop bet that is always fun to consider features the jersey number of the first touchdown scorer. The over/under for that bet is 24.5, and it may be worth taking the under here.
For the Chiefs, quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and wide receivers Tyreek Hill (10), Sammy Watkins (14) and Mecole Hardman (17) all wear low numbers. And for the Buccaneers, quarterback Tom Brady (12) and wide receivers Scotty Miller (10), Chris Godwin (12) and Mike Evans (13) don lower figures.
There's a chance a player wearing a higher number gets into the end zone first, such as Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) or Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown (81). But with so many talented players on the under side of that line, it could be a profitable prop bet to make.
Hill and Kelce have been on a roll this postseason, and they're sure to be frequent targets of Mahomes. And all three have recent Super Bowl experience, as Kansas City won Super Bowl LIV last year. So, these stars may not be feeling the pressure of playing in the biggest game of the season.
Another popular Super Bowl prop bet is trying to guess who will take home MVP honors. Mahomes did so last year, and he has the best odds to do so again in Super Bowl LV at -106. He'd become only the third player to win back-to-back Super Bowl MVP awards, joining Bart Starr (Super Bowl I and II) and Terry Bradshaw (Super Bowl XIII and XIV).
Mahomes is likely to have a strong showing, considering how well he's played again this postseason. He's coming off a big performance in the AFC Championship Game in which he passed for 325 yards and three touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills.
In Week 12 of the regular season, the 25-year-old passed for a season-high 462 yards and three touchdowns at Tampa Bay. So while the Bucs have a strong defense, Mahomes and the Chiefs' high-powered offense have already shown they're capable of faring well against that unit.
The over/under line for Mahomes' passing yards in Super Bowl LV is at 325.5, while his passing touchdowns number is at 2.5. It's possible he'll exceed both of those totals, so it may be worth considering betting the over on each of those lines.
For a full list of available prop bets for Super Bowl LV, check out DraftKings Sportsbook leading up to the game.
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