05-11-2021, 03:45 AM
п»їTop Money Management Tips & Systems for Sports Gambling.
New to the industry? An understanding of how to bet or how to handicap games are critical to getting started. However, none of that matters if you don’t manage your bankroll properly.
That’s why I created this article on the keys to money management when betting on sports. Before we get into it, there are two things you need to come to grips with.
First, there is no such thing as a lock when betting on sports. This can be difficult for a lot of people to grasp. That’s because several amateurs blame their losses on games being fixed.
Second, you have to treat it like a long-term investment not a weekend trip to the casino. Investing on sports takes discipline and lots of it. You aren’t trying to hit the jackpot with one play. You instead are trying to find many small edges over a long period of time.
Invest Like the Professionals: Learn Expert Skills to Money Management.
If you are someone who just throws money around on games with no method to your madness, chances are you aren’t collecting from the books. Instead, you are finding yourself reloading more and more.
I’m not saying it’s bad to do it for entertainment purposes. You can still do that with a disciplined approach that gives you a greater shot at profiting.
Basics: Starting Bankroll, Bet Size & Risk Tolerance.
The first thing that you have to figure out is how big of a bankroll you have for sports betting. Once you have that, you can determine what your starting bet size will be. This is a balance between your expected win rate, the number of bets made, and risk tolerance.
Just because you have an edge does not mean you want to double down your entire stack. An easy way to look at it is like this. Let’s say you have a random number generator that is equally likely to select any number from 1-100. If the number is between 1-55 you win, if it’s 56-100 then you lose. How much would you be willing to risk in this situation?
Kelly Criterion.
I use the Kelly Criterion to determine how much I risk. The formula is as follows.
“b” is the net odds received on the wager, that is what you receive on top of getting your wager back. “p” is the probability of winning. “q” is the probability of losing (1-p).
Seem complicated? Don’t worry. There is a Kelly Calculator that makes it easy.
Example.
Let’s say you have $10,000 in your bankroll to use on the random number generator. How much should you wager on the number being 1-55?
If you are getting even money back (1 to 1) and your probability of winning is 55% your ticket size would be $1,000.
That is the full Kelly amount which would maximize risk and return. Want to reduce your risk? A common approach for gamblers is to use “half-Kelly” and risk half the recommended amount.
Bet Size Based on Expected Win Percentage.
Here are some common win percentages with the percentage of your bankroll your wager size should be.
Win % Bet Size 52.5% 0.25% 53.0% 1.30% 53.5% 2.35% 54.0% 3.40% 54.5% 4.45% 55.0% 5.50% 55.5% 6.55% 56% 7.60% 56.5% 8.65% 57.0% 9.70% 57.5% 10.75% 58.0% 11.80% 58.5% 12.85% 59.0% 13.90% 59.5% 14.95% 60.0% 16.00%
This even works when trying to decide what to wager on arbitrage bets (everything you can), trying to middle games, or hedging parlays.
Top Sports Betting Strategies to Manage Your Money Long-Term.
Flat Betting System.
For most bettors I recommend they enter their bankroll, expected win percentage, and average odds of -110 to find the recommended bet size. Then, take half of that and use it to flat bet each game during a season.
It keeps things easy and comfortable.
Let’s look at an example. If you go 82-68 (54.67%) on the year and use a flat $100 per game you would be up $720.
If you start out using a flat betting system, but after a great winning streak decide to vary your bets and increase them you could cost yourself.
Let’s say you start out the season going 60-40 (60%) at $100 per play, 60 X 100 = $6,000, minus 40 X 110 = $4,400, winning $1,600.
Then you decide to get greedy and up your bets to $200 per play in the hopes of winning even more money.
It is extremely unlikely for you to continue to hit 60% of your wagers long term. Let’s say you go 22-28 (44%) on your next 50 bets. That would give you 22 * 200 = $4,400 on your winners and 28 * 220 = $6,160 on your losers for a total loss of $1,760.
For the season you are still 82-68 (54.67%), above the required win percentage (52.38%) to win money. However, now you are down $160 on the year instead of being up $720!
This is why I recommend most bettors pick a unit value for the season and stick with it.
Kelly & The Power of Compounding Return.
If you want to take your game to the next level and maximize your earnings, you need to make a simple change. Instead of keeping the same wager, you can adjust each new bet based off your bankroll.
Whenever your bankroll increases, you make small increases in your bet size. At the same time, when you stack goes down, you decrease how much you wager. This allows you to compound your winnings when it’s going well and limit your losses when you are in a slump.
You simply re-calculate Kelly before placing each wager. The swings are greater using Kelly, but the end return should be higher.
Let’s take a look at an example. Let’s say you have that $10,000 bankroll and can hit 55%. You are laying -110 on all of your bets instead of using a reduced juice sports book like 5Dimes. You would start out wagering $550 per game.
You win your first bet. Your bankroll is now $10,500 so your next wager would be $577 to win $525. You win that one and your bankroll is now $11,025. Your next wager would be $606. However, if you lose you are now down to $10,419.
You would keep adjusting the amount before each bet you made until the end of the season.
Best Money Managment Tip – Stay Patient.
On paper, it is easy to see and understand, but doing it in the real world is much different. In all of my time spent in this industry, the number one thing I have learned is patience. It is a must. Without it, you will crumble.
You have got to have the will to sit through a losing streak. There’s no avoiding them. Losing streaks happen to everyone. EVERYONE .
It’s important to remember that betting on sports is not a 50-yard dash, but a long distance race. Similar to the stock market. You’ll see losing days, weeks, months and even years in the stock market.
However, if you look at the returns over each 20-year horizon it has always returned a positive profit. You can do the same with your sports betting if you know how to manage your bankroll.
Money Management.
June 15, 2016.
Section 1: Primer.
Tired of losing his money to the house, a bored millionaire in Las Vegas turns to you and offers you a proposition that you can’t refuse. He pulls out a stack of casino chips and declares:
“I’ve got a 100-sided, evenly weighted die, which I am going to roll. If it comes up 1 through 57 you win, if it comes 58 through 100 I win. We’re playing for even money. How much do you want to bet?”
How would you respond? Obviously you accept, but you are uncertain as to exactly how much you should wager – you are a solid favorite, but not an overwhelming one. The answer to this question is much deeper and more important to an investor’s bottom line than the average sports bettor ever realizes. This series of articles will provide the single most comprehensive investment optimization guide available on the internet, and will show you how to size your bets according to (1) your risk tolerance and financial goals and (2) the duration (number of bets) of your investment. Just as we use rigorous mathematical models to consistently pick winners against the spread, so too will we use simple but powerful financial formulas to achieve the greatest risk-adjusted return possible from those selections.
For bettors with a relatively low risk tolerance who are investing their money for one season, we will describe how to use a relatively flat betting structure, where your bets remain constant throughout the season, and how you can use the star system optimally. For bettors who are more risk tolerant, or who are investing over a period of several seasons (one sport over several years, or several different sports in one year), we will outline a more aggressive growth strategy with optimally fluctuating dynamic bet sizes.
For the bettor who just wants an approximation of what is generally correct, we will outline a summary in the next section. For the more advanced bettor who is curious to learn the fundamental logic behind our bet sizing systems, we will then describe the mathematics behind the Kelly Criterion, a formula which relates edge and odds to bet sizing for optimal investment in the sections that follow. We will continue to explain some of the nuanced concepts, such as simultaneous/sequential events, return/volatility ratios, and fractionalization. This should help illustrate how powerful the very simple, yet frequently misunderstood formula can be when applied correctly, and how to avoid disastrous mis-applications of growth sizing.
Doc's Sports Betting Strategy and Profit.
When you deal with Doc's Sports Service, you're dealing with a recognized leader and trusted name in the sports handicapping industry. Maintaining a small operation keeps us closely in touch with our customers' needs. We monitor our competition and always make sure we take better care of our clients than any other service. Read More >>
The plain, hard fact is most sports gamblers lose money. And the reason for this is simple: a lack of discipline and money management This is why Doc's Sports was the first to develop a unit system for betting sports almost 50 years ago. Many services now use a system similar to ours. We know from shopping our competition that none of them have had the success that we've had over the years. As with many things in life, experience plays a big part. It doesn't matter if you're a doctor, auto mechanic, investment advisor or a sports handicapper; the longer you do something the more you learn and the fewer mistakes you make. Read More >>
We often get asked what the best strategy is when it comes to betting sports? The answer is simple, you must be in it for the long term in order to maximize your success and profits. This does not mean it's not wise to sign up for daily or weekly packages, it just means that in our nearly 50 years of business, we've found our clients who sign up for our full-season packages in the beginning of each season always seem to have the most success. Read More >>
There's a reason that hard-working adults such as students, professionals, business owners and so many others choose Doc's Sports Service to deliver them superior sports betting advice year after year. It's because we too are hard working professionals who accept only the best, and we know how to take care of our clients. Read More >>
I still get a kick out of people's reaction when I tell them what I do for a living. When I say that I'm a professional sports handicapper, the first reaction is either surprise, expressed by raised eyebrows and a lean back, or confusion, expressed by a furrowed brow and pursed lips. Read More >>
Pick: SB Tied After 0-0 YES -140 Start: February 7, 2021 @ 6:30 PM Expert: Alan Harris Offered at: BookMaker Analysis: In a game where the point spread has stayed right around a field goal since the opener, one could reasonably expect that this game will be tied at some point after 0-0. There could be a feeling out process early in the game where both teams go down and get field goals on their opening drive or we could see an opening like we saw in the NFC Championship game where Tampa landed the first punch to take a 7-0 lead before the Packers answered back and tied the game at 7-7 early in the second quarter. We like this one to be high scoring, especially late but we don’t see it being a blowout either way so we’re going to lay the short price that we’ll see a tie score after 0-0 on Sunday night. ***Note: Most, if not all books grade this prop after the conversion attempt. Example being if TB leads 6- 0 and KC scores a TD, the game is not considered tied until after the conversion attempt. If KC scores on the conversion, NO would still be winning the wager at that point. If KC were to miss the extra point, the YES would be graded a winner at that point*** Read More Read Less.
Gambling 101: What is Bankroll Management?
Proper bankroll management is important to a profitable, long-term and more enjoyable sports betting experience. While money is personal, and everyone spends it differently, there are simple practices that can help bettors avoid busting their bankroll.
First and foremost, players should never place bets with money they can’t afford to lose. Every wager is a gamble and a betting account should be funded with money that is set aside for entertainment purposes.
Percentage Betting Limits Bankroll Exposure.
Depending on the amount of disposable cash available, recreational bettors need to determine a starting bankroll. For this discussion, we will use $2,000 as our initial deposit and open accounts at two sportsbooks. While suggested percentages vary, players are wise to never bet more than 2% to 10% of available funds on any given day. Based on 10% spending, a player needs to lose 30 straight bets before their bankroll dwindles down to a mere $9.42 balance.
Any player who loses 30 straight wagers should find a new form of entertainment.
Setting daily spending limits allows players to make multiple wagers and still stay within their budget. For example, after making an initial deposit, a bettor may decide to use 5% of their bankroll ($100) the first day they place bets. That means they could wager $50 on a NFL point spread wager, $25 on a NHL moneyline bet, plus $15 on a NBA game total and $10 on a parlay ticket.
By limiting the total amount wagered, and creating a minimal bankroll hit, it’s easier to move on if all four bets lose. A key part of proper money management is avoiding the lure of a big payout that requires a large investment. Wagering a huge sum, on a perceived sure thing, is one of the quickest ways a player can drop their betting account to zero. Houston (-520) losing to Detroit in 2019, as one of the biggest moneyline favorites in MLB history, is a solid example.
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