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Week 14 FanDuel Picks: NFL DFS lineup advice for daily fantasy football GPP tournaments.
Earlier this season, a Jaguars backup quarterback led our FanDuel tournament lineup to glory. If DFS lightning could ever strike twice, it would be in 2020. Welcome to Week 14, where our key selection in our GPP lineup on FD is Mike Glennon. If he can follow in Jake Luton's earlier footsteps, we'll be sitting pretty.
Using Glennon allows a running back combo of Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara with a receiver combo of DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett. It can definitely be worth it.
FanDuel Picks Week 14: NFL DFS lineup for GPPs.
QB Mike Glennon, Jaguars vs. Titans ($6,600)
Remember earlier this season, when you probably laughed at our selection of Jake Luton as our GPP quarterback? That lineup finished in the top one percent of tournaments. Glennon's averaged about 16 FD points in his two starts, and the Titans wind up in more shootouts than you'd expect. Glennon's cheap price allows for more stars elsewhere.
RB Aaron Jones, Packers @ Lions ($8,700)
The Lions have allowed the most FD points to running backs this season at more than 30 per game. That sets Jones up for a huge day in which yardage shouldn't be a worry, and the only thing that will determine whether it's a top-10 RB day or a top-three RB day is how many times he finds the end zone.
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints @ Eagles ($7,800)
Kamara's price has continued to drop thanks to a lack of catches with Taysom Hill at the helm. If Drew Brees (ribs) does return, Kamara's an absolute steal at this price, but even with Hill, Kamara is still a decent play here thanks to his ability to take any carry to the house.
WR DJ Chark, Jaguars vs. Titans ($5,900)
Chark hasn't had big games with Glennon running the offense despite decent target totals, and that could make Laviska Shenault an option to stack for Jacksonville. But Chark is still the best receiver in this offense and the most likely to get consistent targets in a game with a lot of points, leading to higher volume than he's seen so far with Glennon.
WEEK 14 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals @ Giants ($8,200)
It's been a slump of late for Arizona, but the best way to break out of that is to force feed your top recevier. To think James Bradberry or anyone else on the Giants can cover Hopkins is foolish. There should be double-digit targets and a possible touchdown waiting for Hopkins in Week 14.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers vs. Washington ($6,300)
Playing Samuel is an attempt to take advantage of Washington's overall good numbers against receivers this year. The little red opponent ranking on FD could work in our favor because Samuel is so different than other receivers that it barely matters. He's frequently targeted at or behind the line-of-scrimmage to do his damage after the catch, and following a Week 13 that didn't see his first reception until the second half, expect Samuel's involvement to be early and often against the Washington Football Team.
TE Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Texans ($4,600)
Kmet saw a career-high in targets (7) and receptions (5) in Week 13, seemingly out of nowhere. His price barely rose despite the outing, showing some skepticism in FD's algorithms. But Kmet's snap count was already rising above Jimmy Graham's before last week, suggesting it was only a matter of time before he produced. At this dirt-cheap price, we'll take what we can get from Kmet.
FLEX Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Jets ($7,900)
Coming off a loss to the Giants, Seattle could put up a huge number on the Jets. Lockett remains one of the tougher covers in football, and there's certainly no one on New York that can hope to slow him down. This is the perfect get-right game for the Seahawks.
DEF Houston Texans @ Bears ($3,400)
The Texans are both our cash and GPP defense this week thanks to a matchup with Mitchell Trubisky at a very low price. Don't worry about the Kmet overlap because both that selection and this are about finding value. Both can pay off at the same time, and they allow us to pack our lineup with other high-priced studs.
NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 14, 2020: Proven model loving Panthers, Titans.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 14 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
Teams favored by a touchdown or more have gone 29-31-1 against the spread this season. The current Week 14 NFL spreads from William Hill Sportsbook list five teams favored by a touchdown or more. The Seahawks are laying 13.5, the biggest spread of the week, against the Jets in the latest Week 14 NFL odds. Seattle lost outright as an 11-point favorite against the Giants a week ago, so can you trust Russell Wilson and company in your NFL bets?
Meanwhile, the Titans are 7.5-point favorites over the Jaguars in the current Week 14 NFL lines, fresh off a 41-35 loss to the Browns in which they trailed 38-7 at the half. Can the Titans bounce back with the Colts breathing down their necks in the AFC South, and which Week 14 NFL Vegas odds are way off? All of the Week 14 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 14 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 20-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning almost $800. The model enters Week 14 on an incredible 116-76 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 14 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 14.
One of the top Week 14 NFL picks the model recommends: Carolina covers as a 3.5-point home favorite against Denver. Both teams have matching 4-8 records and are 7-5 against the spread, but the Panthers have been the better bet lately. In fact, Carolina has covered in three of four, while the Broncos have covered in just two of four.
The Panthers have a plus-four turnover differential, while the Broncos sit at minus-17. Since the start of last season, Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has the highest cover percentage (11-5) of any quarterback with at least 10 starts.
The model predicts that Bridgewater will produce 256 yards of total offense and score two total touchdowns. The Panthers will also generate multiple turnovers, leading to a cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The over (44.5) also hits over 50 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 14 NFL predictions from the model: The Tennessee Titans (-7.5) cover on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee has won eight of the last 10 against Jacksonville and has at least one double-digit win the past three seasons. Tennessee failed to cover as a seven-point favorite in the teams' first meeting this season, but the model likes Tennessee's chances to pick up the victory by 10 points this time around.
The line opened at Tennessee -9.5, but has come down two points since then. The model is calling for Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill to throw for over 250 yards and two scores, while running back Derrick Henry clears 100 yards on the ground. Tennessee covers in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the under (52.5) hits 60 percent of the time.
How to make Week 14 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 14 NFL schedule and identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 14.
Sunday, Dec. 13.
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 44.5)
NFL picks, predictions for Week 14: Bills shock Steelers; Browns get revenge on Ravens; Bucs right the ship.
Week 14 of the NFL season offers a preview of the AFC playoffs. There are four games between AFC teams with winning records.
That starts in the 1 p.m. ET slot with Kansas City and Miami. Indianapolis faces Miami in the 4:05 p.m. ET spot.
That sets up a pair of intriguing prime-time matchups. Pittsburgh will try to keep the No. 1 seed going at Buffalo on Sunday Night Football, and Baltimore will try to keep its playoff hopes alive at Cleveland on Monday Night Football.
That is sure to shake up the playoff picture.
Here is a look at our track record in picking games straight-up in 2020:
Last Week: 9-6 Season: 83-57.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for the rest of Week 14:
NFL picks, predictions for Week 14.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFLN.
The Patriots are back in the playoff hunt and have allowed less than 300 yards of offense in their last two games. Can that trend continue against the Rams? Jared Goff passed for 351 yards last week after being called out for too many turnovers. Los Angeles has a good defense, too.
Pick: Rams 24, Patriots 20.
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Chicago Bears.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Brace yourselves for a week of Mitchell Trubisky-Deshaun Watson comparisons from the 2017 NFL Draft. The Texans are favored, and the line has jumped up a point. David Montgomery helps Chicago control the clock at home, and the Bears keep their slim NFC playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Bears 26, Texans 22.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Andy Dalton returns to Cincinnati and will make a start against his former team. The Bengals, meanwhile, has averaged just 10.8 points per game through a four-game losing streak. Dalton leads the Cowboys to victory on the road, and that puts even more heat on second-year coach Zac Taylor.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Bengals 13.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Dolphins remain in the playoff hunt, and this is the first big-time matchup for rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins rank second in the league in creating turnovers (20), but the Chiefs will not give them enough opportunities. Patrick Mahomes II has thrown just two interceptions all season.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 20.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Cardinals have lost three consecutive games since the “Hail Murray.” The Giants have allowed 20 points or less through a four-game win streak. Oklahoma and Texas fans will tune into this Colt McCoy and Kyler Murray matchup, but we like the Cardinals to get back on track.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Giants 24.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Vikings remain in the playoff hunt, but Dalvin Cook will be challenged by the league's top run defense. That will put pressure on Kirk Cousins. Tampa Bay had an extra week to prepare, and Tom Brady cleans up the turnovers at home.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Vikings 21.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Panthers had a bye week to heal for the stretch run, and they get a Denver team that is 2-4 on the road this season. The Broncos have a –10 turnover ratio in their last four games, and Carolina takes advantage of that trend.
Pick: Panthers 23, Broncos 20.
Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Titans played a 33-30 thriller with the Jaguars in the first meeting. Jacksonville has lost four of its last five games by four points or less. Derrick Henry clears 100 yards this time, and the Tennessee bounces back from the loss to Cleveland.
Pick: Tennessee 28, Jacksonville 21.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Raiders escaped New York with a victory against the Jets, and now they meet an old nemesis in Philip Rivers – who lost both meetings to the Raiders as the Chargers' starting quarterback last season. Las Vegas' defense is a big concern, but Derek Carr leads another victory in an afternoon thriller.
Pick: Raiders 31, Colts 28.
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Seahawks' defense is playing better, but the offense struggled in a loss to the Giants last week. Seattle is 0-4 when it has two or more turnovers in a game this season. Russell Wilson gets back on track against the winless Jets.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Jets 17.
Green Bay Packers (-8) at Detroit Lions.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Packers can clinch the NFC North with a win and a Vikings loss, but it won't be as easy as it looks at Detroit. The Lions played loose under interim coach Darrell Bevell, and the teams have split the last four meetings at Ford Field. Will Green Bay close out their division rival?
Pick: Packers 27, Lions 24.
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
Will the Eagles turn to Jalen Hurts with their season on the line? He offered a spark in the second half in last week's loss to the Packers. The Saints have allowed just 9.3 points per game in Taysom Hill's three starts. This will be close, but New Orleans hangs on to the top seed in the NFC.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 16.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 45-0 loss, and they are underdogs against the Falcons. Atlanta still hasn't been consistent on both sides. The Falcons are 2-3 on the road this season.
Pick: Chargers 28, Falcons 24.
Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
Alex Smith will be starting against his former team, and that provides an interesting storyline. The 49ers are on the outskirts of the playoff conversation, but they are healthy and at home. Both teams allow less than 24 points per game. That's the magic number.
Pick: 49ers 24, Washington 20.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Buffalo Bills.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Steelers are on their third game in 12 days, and it's a tough spot at Buffalo. The Bills also are coming off a short week, but they are 5-1 at home. Josh Allen makes the most of the opportunity by handing Pittsburgh a second loss.
Pick: Bills 26, Steelers 20.
Baltimore Ravens (NA) at Cleveland Browns.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Browns have come a long way since the season-opening 38-6 loss to Baltimore. Cleveland is 9-3, and their playoff credentials are still being questioned. This is the chance to change the narrative, and they do it in thrilling fashion against a division rival.
NFL Week 14 game picks: Steelers over Bills; Ravens top Browns.
Around The NFL Editor.
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Gregg Rosenthal went 12-3 on his predictions for Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 121-69-1. How will he fare in Week 14? His picks are below.
Sunday, Dec. 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Minnesota Vikings 26.
Tom Brady's struggles have mostly come against top defenses that can disrupt him. That shouldn't be a problem this week. The Vikings' offensive success has mostly come against defenses they could run against. That is unlikely to be an option this week. The Bucs' sprint to the finish before being called The Team No One Wants To Face In The Playoffs starts now.
New York Giants 27, Arizona Cardinals 21.
The Giants have won four in a row. The Cardinals have lost three in a row. That trajectory, and the expected return of Daniel Jones, aren't the only things that explain this pick, but it's a start. Arizona needs to be an offense-first team, and its offense is limited, with defenses forcing Kyler Murray to throw or hand off. The Giants' defense, meanwhile, is fourth in EPA per play since Week 9.
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Miami Dolphins 21.
Dolphins coach Brian Flores was part of a Patriots staff that slowed down Patrick Mahomes better than most. Miami's defense is built to change looks and disrupt Kansas City's timing enough to keep the Chiefs' red-zone and run-game struggles going. Look for the Dolphins to keep this game interesting, even if their offense is leaning a little too much on guys like Myles Gaskin, Jakeem Grant and Lynn Bowden.
Tennessee Titans 37, Jacksonville Jaguars 27.
The Jaguars' defensive improvement since their Week 8 bye, despite an avalanche of injuries, has been one of the most fruitless, inexplicable developments of the season. The Titans' defensive struggles are equally confounding, but more consistent. Expect plenty of points, just like the 33-30 Titans victory in Week 2 that started Jacksonville's 11-game losing streak.
Dallas Cowboys 24, Cincinnati Bengals 21.
Being removed from prime time in Week 15 shows where these Cowboys stand. Losing to the Fighting Brandon Allen Bengals would represent a new low, albeit one that could position them for a top-three draft pick. This looks like Zac Taylor's best chance at avoiding another two-win season, and that's the last bit of analysis I can muster for the game I've least wanted to watch in the 2020 season.
Houston Texans 28, Chicago Bears 24.
Deshaun Watson heading to Chicago isn't a revenge game as much as a what if game. How many playoff games would Watson have won backed by the Bears' defense of the last four years? Based on the last two weeks and the paltry pass rush provided by Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn lately, that defense may be leaving town soon, along with Mitchell Trubiskyп»ї.
Carolina Panthers 24, Denver Broncos 23.
Another Super Bowl revenge game is clouded, like so much else this season, by COVID-19 complications. Carolina had 10 players on the COVID-reserve list early in the week, but most of its key starters like п»їCurtis Samuelп»ї, п»їShaq Thompsonп»ї and п»їDerrick Brownп»ї came off the list by Friday, which is enough to swing my pick. As 4-8 squads go, the Panthers are elite!
Seattle Seahawks 31, New York Jets 17.
Interim head coaches are 3-0 in their first games this season. While Adam Gase remains, perhaps the collective exhale in the Jets' defensive meeting room after Greggggg's departure is worth a few points of happiness. That still won't be enough to fool Russell Wilsonп»ї, whose recent struggles have come against veteran defenses that can mix coverages in a way the young, talent-poor Jets cornerbacks cannot.
Indianapolis Colts 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Gregg Williams blitzed because Derek Carrп»ї, even in a fine season, struggles with pressure more than top quarterbacks. The Colts can pressure with just four linemen, and the modest progress shown by the Raiders' defense took a big step back against the Jets. Even though the Colts are tied for first place in the AFC South, this feels like a decisive battle for the AFC's seventh playoff seed.
San Francisco 49ers 24, Washington Football Team 20.
The Football Team was always capable of beating a team like the Steelers. Following up such an emotional win with another road victory against a well-coached squad would be as impressive. As much as I'd love to see Alex Smith beat the team he started with, the potential loss of Antonio Gibson would be devastating for the Washington offense. And the trio of Deebo Samuelп»ї, Brandon Aiyuk and Raheem Mostert could cause a lot of problems for a Washington defense that relies on sound tackling and red-zone dominance.
New Orleans Saints 27, Philadelphia Eagles 14.
Jalen Hurts is starting for the Eagles. Taysom Hill is likely starting one more game for the Saints. They are not set up equally for success. While Hill is backed up by a dynamic running game, Hall of Fame coach and peaking defense, Hurts has none of that support in his first NFL start. Good luck!
Atlanta Falcons 28, Los Angeles Chargers 24.
I was waiting for Justin Herbert to look mortal. It's happened over the last month against great defensive coordinators. He doesn't face one this week, but the Falcons have played better team defense since Raheem Morris took over as interim head coach, winning four of five games against teams not from New Orleans.
Green Bay Packers 38, Detroit Lions 27.
The Lions' offense was different last week under interim coach Darrell Bevell, playing faster, running less and not worrying about trying to cover for a defense that's going to be dreadful regardless. п»їAaron Rodgersп»ї is different this year, too, getting the ball out in rhythm because there are so many open receivers, rather than trying to improvise and rely on his skill set. The Packers' transformation feels more permanent.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Buffalo Bills 21.
Based strictly on the eye test, Buffalo's playing better than Pittsburgh lately. The Bills have the better passing game in a pass-first league, and the defense has come around. They look ready to win a big game like this, while the Steelers look tired. But Pittsburgh's station-to-station offense matches up well against a Buffalo squad willing to give up short gains, and the Bills' offensive line worries me against top competition. This week qualifies.
Monday, Dec. 14.
Baltimore Ravens 27, Cleveland Browns 24.
This might be my favorite game left on the 2020 slate. My heart wants Baker Mayfieldп»ї's boffo game against Tennessee to be more about his maturation and less about Kevin Stefanski dialing up wide-open first reads against a vulnerable defense. My head says the Ravens' defense will be a far sterner test, with both offenses more dangerous when running and vulnerable when run against. Baltimore needs this game more and has been in this type of game many more times. Experience wins the day.
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