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п»їStaking Plans вЂ” What You Need To Know About Betting Bankroll Management.
DonвЂ™t fixate on staking plans. They wonвЂ™t improve the profitability of your strategy/system unless it already has an advantage or positive вЂedgeвЂ. Verify that your selection method is profitable on an equal-stake basis before you look to optimise your approach to bankroll management.
Staking Plans вЂ” Important Points.
The Benchmark Is the Level Risk Staking Plan.
A level risk staking plan means risking a fixed stake or вЂunitвЂ™ per bet (e.g. ВЈ5 stakes throughout my Mug Betting Experiment). A selection system that doesnвЂ™t produce a profit on a level stake basis wonвЂ™t profit under any staking plan. Fundamentally it needs to have a positive edge.
There are two types of level-risk staking plans:
You risk the same amount per bet, irrespective of the odds . So if the odds are 2.5 or 10.0, youвЂ™d still bet the same amount. For Lay bets youвЂ™d have to calculate the correct risk (the liability) per bet. You determine the risk from the odds. This method accounts for the implied chance of winning. Higher stakes are placed on low odds, and lower stakes at high odds. The result is an even profit from any win, no matter what the odds were.
(2) is the better, safer option because it allows for more вЂattemptsвЂ™ at striking a win at higher odds where thereвЂ™s less chance of getting one. The variance is reduced such that both losing and winning streaks donвЂ™t impact the bank too much. The result is a flatter, less jagged PnL graph with fewer heavy swings of misfortune and fortune than in method (1). The main advantage to all this is that it makes the prediction of future performance a little easier.
However, putting peaks and troughs aside, the end result вЂ” the profit вЂ” is more or less the same for both (1) and (2).
Most Staking Plans CanвЂ™t be Applied Effectively.
ThereвЂ™s a few reasons why staking plans fail in practice. Consider the following:
Bookmaker stake limits . If a Bookie limits your bets, or only offers a low max stake for a particular selection, then you might not be able to bet according to your rigid staking plan. Betfair liquidity. To overcome Bookmaker stake limitations you could use Betfair, right? Yes вЂ” but that doesnвЂ™t guarantee youвЂ™ll be able to get your stake away at the odds you want. ItвЂ™s still very much dependent on market liquidity. Loss of potential profit . This might sound contradictory to what youвЂ™re trying to achieve from a staking plan. But if your aim is to maximise the profit you earn from every bet you make, then your ultimate goal should be to bet as much as you can comfortably risk on each bet*. Sometimes staking plans suggest lower stakes, in order to promote steady growth and reduce risk. You need to decide what you value the most. Complexity . The more you have to refer to your spreadsheet to check the вЂcorrectвЂ™ stakes, the more work and admin you create for yourself. Remember that you usually have to be fast in professional betting вЂ” so you want to avoid wasting valuable time.
*This principle only applies to bets with an advantage or вЂedgeвЂ. If you donвЂ™t have an edge, then betting more will only extrapolate your losses!
Other Staking PlansвЂ¦
The Martingale (Disastrous)
This is the poorest form of bankroll management. It is literally one of the worst staking plans ever devised.
The theory is that you keep doubling your stake every time you lose on an even money outcome (at odds of 2.0), until you eventually win. ItвЂ™s simple, and it might work for a bit. But youвЂ™ll need an infinite betting bank and a Bookmaker that will enable you to bet up to an infinite stakeвЂ¦
Just for demonstration purposes, imagine you bet ВЈ20 on your first bet, and won on your 8th bet (at odds of 2.0 each time):
Lose ВЈ20 (Total loss = ВЈ20) Lose ВЈ40 (Total loss = ВЈ60) Lose ВЈ80 (Total loss = ВЈ140) Lose ВЈ160 (Total loss = ВЈ300) Lose ВЈ320 (Total loss = ВЈ620) Lose ВЈ640 (Total loss = ВЈ1,260) Lose ВЈ1,280 (Total loss = ВЈ2,540)
вЂ¦ and now youвЂ™re betting ВЈ2,560 having already lost ВЈ2,540 , in order to make ВЈ20 profit overall!
Is it worth it? Can you afford to do it? Will the Bookmaker/Exchange enable you to bet enough each time?
Remember that losing streaks such as this are actually pretty common. So I wouldnвЂ™t try your luck with the Martingale.
Loss Recovery (Bad)
The concept of this staking plan is to recover previous losses by adding them to your win target. ItвЂ™s much like the Martingale staking plan in that it will inevitably come back to bite you you when you hit a losing streak. The key difference is that itвЂ™s open to any odds вЂ” not just even money (2.0). It requires a little more calculation for determining the correct stake.
Imagine you set a target of ВЈ20 profit, and bet at the following (random) odds each time until you won.
Lose ВЈ13.33 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ13.33) Lose ВЈ16.66 @ 3.0 odds (Total loss = ВЈ30) Lose ВЈ33.33 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ63.33) Lose ВЈ27.77 @ 4.0 odds (Total loss = ВЈ91.11) Lose ВЈ74.07 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ165.18) Lose ВЈ52.91 @ 4.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ218.09) Lose ВЈ238.09 @ 2.0 odds (Total loss = ВЈ456.19)
вЂ¦ and if the odds on the next bet are 3.0 then youвЂ™re betting with a stake of ВЈ238.09 , having lost ВЈ456.19 already, in order to reach the original ВЈ20 profit target!
Every time you lose youвЂ™re expected to raise the original target to recover previous losses. On the first bet I lost ВЈ13.33, so the next bet required a new stake calculation to work out how much I had to then bet to recover that loss and also reach the original ВЈ20 profit target.
Using selections with increasingly higher odds after each loss means less additional stake risk вЂ” but doing this means thereвЂ™s more chance of losing on each iteration. In other words, this approach doesnвЂ™t help.
Percentage of Bank (Good вЂ” Minor Adjustments Needed)
This staking plan is simple to implement, and is effective if used properly. You manage your bankroll by setting a stake risk relative to your current bank size. You always bet a fixed percentage of the bank on each selection.
The problem with this staking plan is that if you go on a losing streak, then youвЂ™ll lower your stakes relative to the bank size. Therefore you wonвЂ™t benefit as much from winning bets which come after that losing streak.
LetвЂ™s suppose your bank is ВЈ1,000 and you decide to bet 5% of your bank size. HereвЂ™s an example set of betting results:
Lose ВЈ50 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ50, Total bank = ВЈ950) Lose ВЈ47.5 @ 3.0 odds (Total loss = ВЈ97.5, Total bank = ВЈ902.5) Lose ВЈ45.13 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = ВЈ142.63, Total bank = ВЈ857.37) Lose ВЈ42.87 @ 4.0 odds (Total loss = ВЈ185.5, Total bank = ВЈ814.5)
The next bet now has a stake of 5% x 814.5 = ВЈ40.73.
Already this stake is significantly less than the original ВЈ50. I wonвЂ™t be rewarded as highly for a winning bet as I originally wouldвЂ™ve been (on bet 1). IвЂ™m beginning to вЂpenвЂ™ myself into a smaller bank thatвЂ™s difficult to grow. This isnвЂ™t ideal.
What I suggest is that you manage the bankroll by only applying the % of bank rule once it has grown beyond the starting point. So in my case IвЂ™d maintain an even stake of ВЈ50 until the bank grows to over ВЈ1,000. Of course, this may never happen. ThatвЂ™s betting for you.
Kelly Criterion (Good, Theoretically)
The Kelly Criterion is a staking plan used to determine how much of the betting bank should be risked on any given bet. The formula accounts for the odds, as follows:
B = Decimal odds -1 P = probability of success Q = probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)
Suppose you are betting heads on a coin toss at odds of 2.0, where the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. The 2.0 odds are therefore positive value, because it implies only a 50% chance.
In this scenario:
P = 0.52 Q = 1 вЂ“ 0.52 = 0.48 B = 2.0 вЂ“ 1 = 1.
This works out as: (0.52 x 1 вЂ“ 0.48) / 1 = 0.04.
The Kelly Criterion recommends you bet 4% of the bank. A positive percentage implies an edge in favour of your bankroll, so your funds grow exponentially.
This staking plan has the advantage of ensuring the whole bank is never lost in one bet. In all, itвЂ™s a smart bankroll management strategy. But in practice you will find that the Kelly Criterion recommends bet sizes that simply arenвЂ™t possible due to restrictions at the Bookies/Exchanges. Theoretically it appears a lot more powerful than it really is.
Final Notes On Betting Staking Plans.
ThereвЂ™s no substitute for finding value. Staking plans wonвЂ™t вЂsave the dayвЂ™. But if youвЂ™re conscious of preserving your bank then IвЂ™d personally look to apply a simple percentage of bank plan (with the adjustment IвЂ™ve mentioned), or maintain a low equal risk and ride out the variance.
Keep in mind the limitations to any staking plan you apply. Stay rigid and be sensible with how much you risk.

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